/Issued 5:09 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 13, 2017/
12z NSSL WRF-ARW model
More information at this link http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=air%20quality%20alert
Well we never did get the dog days of summer back in August so I guess we had to wait until mid September for that to happen! A muggy/warm day with highs generally in the low to mid 80s which is around 15 degrees above normal for September 13. There’s been some clouds passing through the Northland today, also areas of haze and smoke.
Surface map late this afternoon had a cold front over northwest Minnesota with quite a bit of instability, warm air and moisture found near and south of this front today — Thunderstorms have been unable to develop though due to the warmer temperatures aloft (850mb temps around +20C; 700mb temps around +8C) In other words the air is somewhat capped which is preventing thunderstorms from developing.
Through Saturday: Will have a surface front draped over the upper Midwest while a couple areas of low pressure track E/NE out of the northern Plains/western High Plains region. This setup will lead to a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms which will affect northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin during the next few days.
Tonight: Any showers/thunderstorms that develop should stay over far northern Minnesota. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase farther south late Thursday afternoon or Thursday night with chances for off an on storms continuing Friday and Saturday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible with these storms through Saturday as there will be quite a bit of moisture for storms to tap into. There is also a risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms as well.
Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with highs Thursday ranging from the 60s in extreme northern Minnesota and also near Lake Superior to the 80s elsewhere.
Note: A big temperature contrast is possible over the Northland on Friday with highs ranging from 50-60 degrees in northern Minnesota to the 80s in east central Minnesota and over portions of northwest Wisconsin.
A top 5 warmest high temperature on record at Duluth, Minnesota today, September 13, 2017 — See top 5 list below.
1: 84 degrees set in 1990
2: 82 degrees set in 2017
3: 81 degrees set in 1981
4: 80 degrees set in 2009, 2004 and 1952
5: 78 degrees set in 1931
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Muggy! Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.
.Thursday… Humid. Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers or thunderstorms possible later in the day. High 75 to 80. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday night… Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible. Low around 60. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Much cooler. Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High around 60. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Normal temperatures for Thursday
Sunrise Thursday: 6:46 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 7:22 PM CDT