/Issued 5:46 PM CDT, Thursday, October 19, 2017/
300mb analysis from 3 PM, October 19, 2017
12z European model Pwat forecast for Friday evening
18z NAM Nest model simulated radar loop starting at 10 PM Friday night – Ending at 1 AM Sunday morning — A few showers or isolated thunderstorms could develop late Friday night across the Northland, which will then be followed by another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms sometime Saturday afternoon or evening.
Water vapor satellite loop for October 19, 2017 — The pattern we’re in looks like something you’d see during the summer months; The main jet stream/Storm track is over Canada while an upper level ridge covers the Plains and upper Midwest. The powerful storm which was over Manitoba Province on Wednesday has moved into Quebec Province today, while another deep low heads into British Columbia today.
Another stellar fall day under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs today ranged from the mid 60s to low 70s (15-20 degrees above average for October 19) Surface map late this afternoon had an area of high pressure covering the southern Great Lakes with low pressure over western Canada and an upper level ridge in place over the central Plains into the upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures at 4 PM today ranged from +22 C at Rapid City, South Dakota to +10 C at International Falls, Minnesota. The warmer air over the western High Plains will push northeast into our area through Friday.
For tonight, clear to partly cloudy and quiet weather conditions once again with lows in the 40s and 50s although a few 30s can’t be ruled out in the typical cold spots.
Very mild temperatures on the way for Friday under partly to mostly sunny skies. 850mb temperatures will climb to between +15 and +20 degrees C and this should lead to widespread 70s over most of the Northland on Friday, it will be cooler, however, along the North Shore of Lake Superior due to the southerly wind coming off the lake. Moisture will also increase on Friday with dew points rising into the 40s and possibly even into the 50s, so the fire danger risk shouldn’t be as high as it has been the past few days thanks to the increasing amounts of low level moisture on Friday.
Low level jet of 40-50 knots will continue to advect warm and humid air into the upper Midwest Friday night, and this setup could lead to a few showers over parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin especially later in the night. Elevated instability is also forecast to increase Friday night which may even cause a thunderstorm or two!
Mild and humid conditions for Saturday with a cold front moving east out of the northern Plains, this front looks to pass through the Northland Saturday night. Forcing along and just ahead of this cold front will cause areas of rain showers along with a few thunderstorms for Saturday and Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will mainly be in the 60s while dew points range from ~50 to ~60 degrees.
Note: A top 5 warmest high temperature is possible Friday, October 20 at Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota — See top 5 lists below.
1: 79 degrees set in 1953
2: 75 degrees set in 1978
3: 74 degrees set in 1914
4: 73 degrees set in 1947
5: 72 degrees set in 1942
International Falls, Minnesota
1: 80 degrees set in 1953
2: 75 degrees set in 1978
3: 74 degrees set in 1958
4: 73 degrees set in 1914
5: 70 degrees set in 1920
Note: Temperatures cool off just a bit Sunday but will still be above average for this time of year with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Low 44 to 49. Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 69 to 74. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday night… A few showers or thunderstorms possible late, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Friday
Sunrise Friday: 7:34 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 6:12 PM CDT