/Issued 4:35 PM CDT, Sunday, October 22, 2017/
Note: Blue area on map represents a chance for accumulating snow late this week while the black outlined area has the greatest chance for accumulating snow. Note: Storm track could shift in coming days which could lead to little or no snow or only light amounts of rain or snow for the Northland.
18z NAM 3km model — Simulated radar beginning early Monday morning, ending late Tuesday evening. Green is rain, blue is snow.
Headlines for tonight and Monday – Numerous high wind headlines in effect covering the northern Rockies and northern Plains while a gale watch covers portions of Lake Superior for Monday night and Tuesday.
Pretty cool visible satellite loop from today showing the clearing line moving east across the Northland.
~85 filtered severe weather reports on Saturday over parts of the central/southern Plains including 5 tornado reports in Oklahoma.
Fairly active day for severe weather on Saturday.
Temperature departure map for the week of October 15, 2017.
Precipitation departure map for the week of October 15, 2017.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
October 15-21, 2017
High Temperature/Departure from Normal
10/15: 49 F/-3 degrees below normal
10/16: 59 F/+7 degrees above normal
10/17: 68 F/+17 degrees above normal
10/18: 68 F/+17 degrees above normal
10/19: 67 F/+17 degrees above normal
10/20: 75 F/+25 degrees above normal
10/21: 63 F/+14 degrees above normal
Low Temperature/Departure from Normal
10/15: 33 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/16: 32 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/17: 41 F/+6 degrees above normal
10/18: 45 F/+11 degrees above normal
10/19: 38 F/+4 degrees above normal
10/20: 50 F/+16 degrees above normal
10/21: 51 F/+18 degrees above normal
Note: Normal temperature at Duluth, MN for the week of October 15, 2017: 52.8 degrees (+10.4 degrees above normal) Source: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 0.52 inches
Normal: 0.62 inches
Departure: -0.10 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of October 15, 2017
Temperature: 52.8 degrees
Departure: +7.3 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 0.34 inches
Departure: -0.17 inches below normal
*3rd warmest low temperature on record for October 21 at International Falls, Minnesota. Low temperature on Saturday was 47 degrees which ties with October 21, 1966 for 4th warmest low on record for October 21. Record warmest low is 61 degrees set in 1953.
*4th warmest low temperature on record for October 21 at Duluth, Minnesota. Low temperature on Saturday was 51 degrees (4th warmest low on record for October 21) Record warmest low is 56 degrees set in 1900.
*5th warmest low temperature on record for October 20 at Duluth, Minnesota. Low temperature on Friday was 50 degrees (5th warmest low on record for October 20) Record warmest low is 59 degrees set in 1920.
Rainfall reports from Saturday, October 21, 2017
Bruno, MN 4 S: 0.70 in
Lester Park, MN 2 SW: 0.45 in
Winter, WI: 0.43 in
Hayward, WI: 0.42 in
Superior, WI: 0.42 in
Clam Lake, WI 4 W: 0.40 in
Wrenshall, MN: 0.34 in
Duluth, MN: 0.31 in
Isle, MN 12 N: 0.31 in
Butternut, WI: 0.24 in
Island Lake, MN 4 E: 0.23 in
Wright, MN 3 E: 0.21 in
Brainerd, MN: 0.19 in
Hibbing, MN: 0.17 in
Grand Marais, MN: 0.14 in
Ashland, WI: 0.13 in
Kabetogama, MN: 0.10 in
International Falls, MN: 0.10 in
Orr, MN 3 E: 0.07 in
Babbitt, MN: 0.03 in
Warmer than average temperatures continued today with clouds this morning giving way to mainly sunny skies over most of the area this afternoon. Highs were in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees today with southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph. Surface map at 3 PM today had a cold front covering the central Great Lakes region (This was the front that brought the rain to the Northland on Saturday) The next system that will affect the Northland was over southern Saskatchewan Province where a 998mb is located this afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly clear skies will continue into early this evening but clouds will be on the increase once again tonight as low pressure along with a warm front and cold front approach from the west. This system will cause some rain showers to develop and move through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later tonight. Lows will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees so still well above average for late October.
Monday and Tuesday: Low pressure will pass north of Minnesota while a secondary low lifts north out of west central Tennessee — These two lows are forecast to phase Tuesday morning over northern lower Michigan or Lake Huron, as this occurs the low will deepen to ~987mb. This storm will bring gusty winds and colder temperatures to the Northland Monday night and Tuesday, there will also be some rain showers in our area Monday but as colder air moves in, expect some snow to mix in with the rain during the late Monday night and Tuesday time frame. Highs Monday will be in the 40s and 50s while highs on Tuesday will drop to the 30s to lower 40s.
Note: The next system to keep an eye on after the early week one will occur during the Thursday-Saturday time frame. Still some uncertainty with this one since it’s still a couple days away, the storm track and intensity could change a bit in coming days but the 12z European and GFS models support a solution that would bring accumulating snow to much of the Northland late this week, snowfall totals could exceed 4 inches especially over far northern areas of Minnesota with lesser amounts farther south the way it looks now, things could change in coming days so if you like snow don’t get too excited just yet.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Clear this evening followed by increasing cloudiness. A few showers possible overnight. Low 43 to 48. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Considerable cloudiness. Occasional showers possible. High 50 to 55. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph during the afternoon.
.Monday night… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible which could mix with a little snow toward daybreak. Low 35 to 40. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.
Normal temperatures for Monday
Sunrise Monday: 7:38 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 6:07 PM CDT