/Issued 6:45 PM CST, Sunday, December 17, 2017/
Note: Still keeping a close eye on a potential snow event that could impact the Northland mid to late week. The pattern setting up is also favorable for some lake effect snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior with east/northeast winds from Wednesday evening through Thursday, possibly lingering into Friday. Potential does exist for up to 4 inches of snow out of this system with more than 6 inches of snow not out of the question especially near Lake Superior. Stay tuned.
Note: Should be adding to these monthly totals especially from mid to late week the way it looks now.
18z NAM-Nest 3km model – Simulated Radar forecast starting at Noon Monday, ending at Midnight. According to this model, some snow will move across northern Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin Monday afternoon through Monday evening, starting ~2 PM up north, then spreading farther south/east after 4 PM.
Temperature departure map for the week of December 10, 2017.
Precipitation departure map for the week of December 10, 2017.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
December 10-16, 2017
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
12/10: 21 F/-3 degrees below normal
12/11: 25 F/+2 degrees above normal
12/12: 13 F/-10 degrees below normal
12/13: 22 F/-1 degree below normal
12/14: 17 F/-5 degrees below normal
12/15: 14 F/-8 degrees below normal
12/16: 21 F/-1 degree below normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
12/10: 9 F/Normal
12/11: 6 F/-3 degrees below normal
12/12: -3 F/-11 degrees below normal
12/13: 4 F/-4 degrees below normal
12/14: 3 F/-5 degrees below normal
12/15: 8 F/+1 degree above normal
12/16: 14 F/+7 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of December 10, 2017: 12.4 degrees (-2.9 degrees below normal) Source: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.34 inches
Normal: 0.25 inches
Departure: +0.09 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of December 10, 2017
Temperature: 20.3 degrees
Departure: +3.5 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 0.16 inches
Departure: -0.05 inches below normal
Generally mostly cloudy skies in our area today with a few peeks of sun mixed in, but a small portion of far northern Minnesota did have a bit more sun compared to other areas this afternoon. Highs were in the mid 20s with a few locations hitting the freezing mark!
Tonight: Considerable cloud cover with areas of fog possible along with some patchy light freezing drizzle. Lows will be in the teens and 20s.
Monday: A strong area of low pressure ~982mb will move from central Manitoba Province in the morning to northwest Ontario Province by the evening — Attached to this low will be a warm front and cold front with both of those boundaries passing through the Northland on Monday. Patchy fog or light freezing drizzle is possible early, otherwise expect mainly mostly cloudy skies.
There will be some snow that moves west-east impacting portions of the Northland especially during the afternoon-evening hours. 850mb and 925mb temperatures are forecast to warm to around zero to -2C on Monday, but it looks cold enough for the precipitation to fall as snow, but surface temperatures hovering near the freezing mark could lead to some sleet or even light rain, especially if the temperatures aloft warm a few more degrees than currently forecast. Note: The greatest potential for around an inch or so of new snow on Monday looks like it’ll remain along or north of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota.
Highs Monday will be in the upper 20s to middle 30s with lows Monday night in the 20s. Will have a rather stiff breeze out of the SW on Monday with gusts to around 20-25 mph possible.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few flurries possible as a secondary cold front drops south into the Northland. Highs will be 20s to around 30 degrees.
Note: Bitterly cold temperatures are still expected starting next weekend and carrying over into the following week. Still is some uncertainty on just how cold it’ll get in our area with today’s model data showing the coldest air staying more over the northern Plains but still plenty cold in the Northland but perhaps not as extreme as prior model runs were showing, but that could easily change in coming days. Potential is there for daytime highs ranging from around 5 above to 10 below for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with lows from 10 below to around 30 below possible.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog or freezing drizzle possible. Low 20 to 25. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Light snow possible especially after 4 PM. High 30 to 35. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
.Monday night… Light snow possible during the evening. Total snowfall less than an inch. Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Low 25 to 30. Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.
Normal temperatures for Monday
Sunrise Monday: 7:49 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:22 PM CST