/Issued 5:24 PM CST, Thursday, February 1, 2018/
18z NAM from 2.1.2018
Note: The average temperature so far this winter at Duluth, Minnesota (Dec 1 – Jan 31) 10.8 degrees; Normal temperature from Dec 1 – Jan 31 is 12.5 degrees — This winter so far is running ~1.7 degrees colder than normal.
Note: Last winter from Dec 1 – Jan 31 had an average temperature of 16.0 degrees; +3.5 degrees warmer than normal.
Note: Seeing some indications per long range model guidance for a possible thaw as we get into mid February – Check out the two images below courtesy of the 12z Euro Ensemble model from 2.1.2018.
High pressure of 1034mb covered the northern Plains today, the Northland sits east of this high so continued weak cold air advection persisted today with late day 850mb temperatures of -22 to -24C. There was a good deal of sunshine this afternoon after the morning clouds cleared out. Highs on this first day of February 2018 ranged from around zero to the single digits above zero which is 15 to 20 degrees colder than average for today’s date.
Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy and very cold as lows bottom out in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero. High pressure will build southeast out of the northern Plains and will pass over the upper Midwest tonight.
Friday: High pressure shifts off toward the Ohio Valley which will put our area in a very weak warm air advection pattern as a southerly wind develops. Partly to mostly cloudy skies on the way for Friday with potential for some snow showers or flurries at times but snowfall amounts should remain under an inch for those that see a bit of snow. Highs will be in the single digits above zero with lows Friday night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.
Saturday: A reinforcing shot of arctic air will be lurking north of the border while a tight thermal gradient sets up from Ontario Province south through the upper Midwest — A weak surface low could spin up while tracking SE out of the western High Plains, and this combined with some lift should go on to produce some snow, but where this snow area sets up is a bit fuzzy, it could setup mainly south of the Northland, or it could be right over our area. Stay tuned. Note: As for potential snowfall amounts on Saturday, a range from 1 to around 4 inches of powdery snow is possible.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
Event: *Wind Chill Advisory*
Timing: 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
.Tonight… Frigid. Mostly clear. Low 12 below to 17 below. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph. Wind chills 20 below to 35 below.
.Friday… Cold. Partly to mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible mainly during the afternoon. High 4 to 9 above. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph. Morning wind chills 20 below to 35 below.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Light snow possible with some accumulation possible. High 5 to 10. Wind variable around 12 mph.
Normal temperatures for Friday
Sunrise Friday: 7:32 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 5:14 PM CST