/Issued 5:55 PM CDT, Sunday, May 6, 2018/
12z GEFS model from 5.6.2018
12z GEFS model from 5.6.2018 — Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid from May 8 through 16.
Blue colors=Below Normal Temperatures
Orange/Reds=Above Normal Temperatures
Cooler than normal temperatures are expected across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes from mid week into possibly early next week with the coolest temperatures and greatest departures from average expected late this week, centered on Friday-Saturday (11th-12th) the way it looks now.
Temperature departure map for the week of April 29, 2018 — Warmer than average in most of the Northland last week. Greatest departures from average in the circled areas on map.
Precipitation departure map for the week of April 29, 2018 — Another week this spring with below average precipitation totals in all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
April 29 through May 5, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
4/29: 63 F/+7 degrees above normal
4/30: 71 F/+14 degrees above normal
5/1: 67 F/+10 degrees above normal
5/2: 62 F/+4 degrees above normal
5/3: 73 F/+15 degrees above normal
5/4: 73 F/+15 degrees above normal
5/5: 75 F/+16 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
4/29: 28 F/-8 degrees below normal
4/30: 46 F/+10 degrees above normal
5/1: 41 F/+5 degrees above normal
5/2: 39 F/+2 degrees above normal
5/3: 38 F/+1 degree above normal
5/4: 40 F/+3 degrees above normal
5/5: 40 F/+2 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of April 29: 54.0 degrees (+7.0 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.24 inches
Normal: 0.70 inches
Departure: -0.46 inches below normal
State Averages for Minnesota for the week of April 29, 2018
Temperature: 54.9 degrees
Departure: +3.7 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 1.04 inches
Departure: +0.32 inches above normal
A dry and cooler than average spring so far at Duluth, Minnesota.
•Average temperature from March 1 through May 5: 31.3 degrees (-2.5 degrees below normal)
•Total precipitation from March 1 through May 5: 1.83 inches (-2.59 inches below normal)
Note: With the Minnesota fishing opener right around the corner, here’s a link to view ice-out dates for some Minnesota lakes https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/ice_out/index.html
Mostly sunny skies this morning gave way to some mid-high level clouds which moved north to south across the Northland with some fair weather cumulus clouds mixed in as well this afternoon especially away from Lake Superior. Highs today ranged from the cool 40s near Lake Superior to the mid 60s to low-mid 70s elsewhere.
Northwest flow aloft was in place over the upper Midwest today with high pressure stretching from the northern Plains to Hudson Bay. High pressure will settle over the southern/eastern Great Lakes for Monday with breezy and warm southwest winds on the backside of this high.
Partly cloudy skies tonight and Monday. Lows tonight in the 30s and 40s with highs Monday in the 70s to lower 80s.
Note: Wind direction will be the determining factor on whether or not it warms up near Lake Superior Monday. East wind could stick around most of the day, if that happens, temperatures would hold in the 40s and 50s close to Lake Superior, if the southwest wind is strong enough, then temperatures would jump into the upper 70s or lower 80s Monday afternoon.
Rain chances arrive Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday as low pressure moves east out of the northern Plains while a cold front drops south out of Ontario Province.
Model differences are fairly large for Friday through Sunday (May 11-13) Anything from rain to no rain to possibly a little snow is in play across the Northland late this week into the weekend, one thing looks almost certain and its the temperatures which look to be well below normal especially Friday and Saturday. Whether or not there is any precipitation is uncertain.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 37 to 42. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Warmer! Partly cloudy. High 76 to 81 but it could be cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph but onshore winds are possible near Lake Superior.
.Tuesday… Increasing cloudiness. Rain showers possible during the afternoon. Turning breezy and cooler. High 67 to 72 with temperatures falling into the 50s during the afternoon. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph becoming east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Normal temperatures for Monday
Sunrise Monday: 5:44 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 8:27 PM CDT