/Issued 3:34 PM CDT, Sunday, May 20, 2018/
12z GFS model 500mb height and vort forecast for Monday, May 21, 2018
12z HREF model from May 20, 2018
Lots of sunshine across the Northland today, probably won’t be as sunny on Monday as clouds lift northeast out of southern Minnesota by later tonight. Also of note is what looks to be a smoke plume in northern Bayfield County in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon, not sure if this is a prescribed burn, or if there is a wild fire burning this afternoon in a small portion of northern Bayfield County, the plume of smoke from this fire is pushing toward the west/southwest through northern Douglas County and also over the southwestern portion of Lake Superior as of 3:30 PM today.
Temperature departure map for the week of May 13, 2018.
Precipitation departure map for the week of May 13, 2018. Just a small portion in far northern Minnesota around the International Falls area with above average precipitation last week, elsewhere in the Northland another week with below average precipitation totals.
Temperature and Precipitation Report for Duluth, Minnesota
May 13-19, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
*=Record High Temperature for the date
5/13: 76 F/+14 degrees above normal
5/14: 82 F/+20 degrees above normal
5/15: 60 F/-2 degrees below normal
5/16: *88 F/+26 degrees above normal
5/17: 52 F/-11 degrees below normal
5/18: 66 F/+3 degrees above normal
5/19: 57 F/-6 degrees below normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
5/13: 39 F/-1 degree below normal
5/14: 53 F/+13 degrees above normal
5/15: 42 F/+2 degrees above normal
5/16: 45 F/+4 degrees above normal
5/17: 41 F/Normal
5/18: 39 F/-2 degrees below normal
5/19: 39 F/-3 degrees below normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of May 13: 55.6 degrees (+4.1 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.02 inches
Normal: 0.73 inches
Departure: -0.71 inches below normal
State Averages for Minnesota for the week of May 13, 2018
Temperature: 60.8 degrees
Departure: +4.8 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 0.29 inches
Departure: -0.46 inches below normal
•3rd coldest low temperature on record for May 20 at Hibbing, Minnesota with a low Sunday morning of 25 degrees — The record low for May 20 is 21 degrees set in 2002.
•5th coldest low temperature on record for May 20 at Brainerd, Minnesota with a low Sunday morning of 32 degrees — The record low for May 20 is 26 degrees set in 1929.
•Duluth Airport dropped to at or below freezing (32 F) this morning for the 3rd time this month with a low Sunday morning of 31 degrees (Normal low is 42 degrees) Last May only had 1 day the entire month with a low of 32 degrees. The average number of days in May with a low of 32 F or colder is 4 (1875-2017 climate period)
•Spring 2018 through May 19 ranks as 2nd driest on record at Duluth, Minnesota with just 2.22 inches of precipitation from March 1 to May 20 — The driest spring on record occurred in 1900 with 1.95 inches of precipitation. Records date back to 1872.
A beautiful spring day in the Northland with abundant sunshine along with light winds with high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s with slightly cooler temperatures closer to Lake Superior but not terribly chilly with only a light lake breeze today.
Will have clear skies this evening but some clouds will eventually push in from the south/southwest later tonight, this will be followed by mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies for Monday with a possibility for a few rain showers or sprinkles mainly for east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Lows tonight will range from the lower 30s to middle 40s, not as cold as Sunday morning but still a little chilly in spots. Highs Monday will be in the 60s and 70s.
Tuesday and Wednesday look mostly dry at the moment with highs in the 70s with a few spots possibly getting into the lower 80s on Wednesday. It could be cooler though near Lake Superior depending on wind direction.
Increasing amounts of moisture and instability are forecast for later this week as low pressure heads into the upper Midwest — Could see some showers and thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Thursday through Saturday with at least a small chance for a few stronger thunderstorms given the amount of instability that the computer models are generating for late week, however, other parameters for stronger convection look poor right now including a weak low level jet and generally weak winds in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Clear this evening, partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Low 38 to 43. Wind variable around 10 mph.
.Monday… Considerable cloudiness. A few showers or sprinkles possible in the afternoon. High 65 to 70 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75 but it could be cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal Temperatures for May 21
Sunrise Monday: 5:27 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 8:44 PM CDT