/Issued 5:39 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 22, 2018
18z NAM from May 22, 2018
20z HRRR model
Late tonight a cluster of showers and thunderstorms with potential for heavy rainfall develops and affects parts of west central through southeastern Minnesota — This activity should remain south of the Northland.
18z 3km NAM from May 22, 2018
There is a risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday roughly west of a line from Ely to Moose Lake.
12z GEFS model from May 22, 2018
Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid through June 7, 2018 — Looks like the warmer than average temperatures will be sticking around across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes through the end of this month, and perhaps through the first week of June, although we lose the deeper red and pink colors on the map toward the end of the forecast loop which means the warmest temperatures (Greatest departures from average) are expected through next week. Note: The Euro Ensemble model shows a cooler airmass setting up the first few days of June so the computer models are in disagreement after the middle of next week.
A mild day with mostly cloudy skies earlier in the day with even some lingering areas of drizzle in parts of the Northland, but this afternoon saw more sun with scattered fair weather cumulus clouds. High temperatures ranged from the low 70s to low 80s with International Falls the warm spot in the Northland at 4 PM with a temperature of 81 degrees! Slightly cooler close to Lake Superior today with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Partly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the lower 40s to middle 50s; Wednesday will be another nice day with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s although it will be cooler closer to Lake Superior especially during the afternoon as a lake breeze develops.
A more humid and unstable airmass will push SW-NE into the Northland Wednesday night and will remain over our area through Friday — A warm front will lift northeast out of the northern Plains on Thursday which will be followed by a cold front on Friday. We should see some showers and thunderstorms develop at times in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin beginning late Wednesday night, lingering into Thursday morning, followed by potentially another round or two of scattered storms for Thursday afternoon and again Friday.
The potential for severe weather still looks pretty low, but a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible especially Thursday when instability and moisture is maximized with steeper mid level lapse rates advecting into the Northland. Winds aloft and wind shear still look weak and this should prevent a bigger severe weather threat from happening in our area.
Note: A late spring heat wave is forecast to setup across the northern Plains and upper Midwest from Thursday through the middle of next week, or from May 24 through 30. Daytime highs are expected to reach well into the 80s with even some 90s in Minnesota and western Wisconsin during the aforementioned time period — It will be cooler though near Lake Superior on some of those days, or whenever the wind direction is out of the east.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Low 49 to 54. Wind light and variable around 10 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 77 to 82 but turning cooler near Lake Superior especially during the afternoon. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… More humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the morning and again later in the afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal Temperatures for May 23
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:25 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 8:46 PM CDT