/Issued 4:10 PM CDT, Sunday, July 8, 2018/
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM this Sunday evening (Blue shaded area on map)
Primary Threats include:
•Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible (Quarter sized to Hen Egg sized)
•Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
•A tornado or two possible.
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect this evening through Monday morning for parts of the Northland (Green shaded area on map)
HRRR model (20z run) Simulated Radar Forecast through 1 AM Monday morning — Looks like the greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur this evening, chances diminish from NW to SE by late evening or early Monday morning.
Temperature Departure map for the week of July 1, 2018: Majority of the Northland had above average temperatures last week, the exception was in extreme northeast Minnesota (Green color on map) as that area had below average temps last week.
Precipitation Departure map for the week of July 1, 2018: Most locations in the Northland had above average precipitation totals last week.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
July 1 through 7, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
7/1: 69 F/-6 degrees below normal
7/2: 83 F/+8 degrees above normal
7/3: 80 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/4: 80 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/5: 78 F/+2 degrees above normal
7/6: 81 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/7: 84 F/+8 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
7/1: 59 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/2: 57 F/+3 degrees above normal
7/3: 66 F/+12 degrees above normal
7/4: 64 F/+10 degrees above normal
7/5: 56 F/+2 degrees above normal
7/6: 53 F/-2 degrees below normal
7/7: 63 F/+8 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of July 1: 69.5 degrees (+4.7 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 1.75 inches
Normal: 1.03 inches
Departure: +0.72 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of July 1, 2018
Temperature: 71.5 degrees
Departure: +1.8 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 1.65 inches
Departure: +0.72 inches above normal
Local Storm Reports for July 8, 2018
8:02 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 47 mph. Northome, MN (Koochiching County)
8:05 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 45 mph. 3 ENE Margie, MN (Koochiching County)
8:06 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 1 NNW Big Falls, MN (Koochiching County) Flagpole down, large trees topped and branches everywhere. Pea sized hail was also reported.
8:11 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 6 NE Gemmell, MN (Koochiching County) Multiple trees down.
8:15 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 7 WNW Effie, MN (Koochiching County) Trees down.
8:15 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 1 SSW Grand Falls, MN (Koochiching County) 2 trees fell across across road. Trees fell on power lines.
8:57 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 46 mph. Orr, MN (St. Louis County)
9:00 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 1 W Gheen, MN (St. Louis County) Multiple large trees down.
9:00 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 2 SSW Orr, MN (St. Louis County) Dozens of trees down on power lines.
9:07 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 45 mph. 2 NNE Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)
10:00 AM: Heavy Rain — 1.15 inch. 13 SSE Littlefork, MN (Koochiching County)
10:04 AM: Heavy Rain — 1.33 inch. 16 E Buyck, MN (St. Louis County)
10:08 AM: Heavy Rain — 1.82 inch. 3 SW Orr, MN (St. Louis County)
10:20 AM: Heavy Rain — 2.33 inch. 3 ESE Orr, MN (St. Louis County)
10:30 AM: Heavy Rain — 2.05 inch. Big Falls, MN (Koochiching County)
10:30 AM: Heavy Rain — 1.15 inch. 3 W Crane Lake, MN (St. Louis County)
We had one round of thunderstorms move through far northern Minnesota this morning, some of those storms were severe with reports of wind damage, storms also produced torrential rainfall with a quick 1 to around 3 inches of rain this morning.
Skies this afternoon were mostly cloudy to mostly sunny depending on your location. Another very warm and muggy day with temperatures this afternoon in the mid 80s to 90 degrees along and south of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota, including all of northwest Wisconsin, with locations north of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota having temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Dew point temperatures at 3 PM ranged from 66 to 73 degrees (Very juicy out there!)
Tonight: A cold front stretched from eastern South Dakota into northern Minnesota as of 4 PM today with good surface and moisture convergence occurring near this boundary this afternoon. Near and ahead of the front a SW low level jet to 35 knots has developed which continues to advect even more moisture into the Northland. The atmosphere has become rather unstable this afternoon with CAPE from 1000 to around 3000 J/kg, highest values over western portions of the area. The air is still somewhat capped late this afternoon as seen in the MLCIN values, but those have fallen to around 25 J/kg, so the cap is starting to weaken. We have seen a few areas of showers and thunderstorms develop late this afternoon north of Highway 2 in northern Minnesota, none of the storms were severe as of 4 PM.
Thunderstorm intensity should increase by 7 PM with scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected to impact parts of Northland with storm movement toward the east/southeast. There is 30 to 40 knots of wind shear over our area this evening along with storm relative helicity values of up to 200 m2/s2 — Favorable ingredients in place for stronger storms, perhaps even an isolated supercell early this evening.
The other hazard out of the storms tonight will be from torrential downpours with PWATS of 1.50 to 2.00 inches which will result in heavy rainfall rates, but hopefully storms won’t sit in one area for very long, but if they do, then the potential for flash flooding would increase this evening.
Nicer weather returns on Monday as tonight’s cold front pushes off to the south/east while high pressure moves southeast out of Manitoba Province. Still a little humid early in the day but dew point temperatures will fall by the afternoon, we’re looking at highs Monday afternoon in the low to mid 80s with a north/northwest breeze.
Stay Weather Aware tonight!