/Issued 4:32 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 10, 2018/
After a break brief from the stormy weather, the threat for thunderstorms returns to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday with a risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms especially Wednesday night. Stay Weather Aware!
3km NAM (18z run, 7.10.2018)
Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday. This model does show a few showers and thunderstorms developing while passing through parts of the Northland Wednesday morning with additional thunderstorms developing Wednesday evening and spreading south/east through the night.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Tuesday, July 10, 2018 (Loop time, ~10 AM to ~4 PM)
Disturbance which brought clouds and some rain showers to parts of Minnesota this morning has exited to the southeast this afternoon with quite a bit of sunshine developing this afternoon in the Northland.
Quiet weather for this evening under clear to partly cloudy skies.
Late tonight into Wednesday morning could feature isolated to scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northland as a warm front approaches from the W-SW, ahead of this boundary a low level jet increases to 25-35 knots which will pump warm and moist air into our area along with an increase in elevated instability — Severe weather isn’t expected early Wednesday morning, but heavy downpours and some lightning will likely occur with these storms, and perhaps some small hail if storms become strong enough.
Late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon looks mainly dry at the moment with thunderstorms redeveloping over the area Wednesday evening and continuing into Thursday morning — Storms Wednesday night could become strong to severe with about 30 to 40 knots of deep layer wind shear, low level jet of 30 to around 45 knots and CAPE of 1000 to around 3000 J/kg. In addition, 0-1 KM Helicity is forecast to be in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range which could help develop a few rotating supercells and perhaps an isolated tornado risk especially in western portions of the Northland Wednesday evening. PWATS from 1.75 to 2.25 inches will also be in place Wednesday night which will lead to heavy rainfall rates and possible flooding once again over parts of the area.
A warm front and cold front will be moving through the upper Midwest Wednesday and Wednesday night which will lead to this next round of storms — The cold front is forecast to extend from south central Minnesota to northern Wisconsin Thursday afternoon with more thunderstorms possible on Thursday mainly over parts of northwest Wisconsin and down into southern Minnesota.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s to around 70 degrees, warmest temps in western areas (Brainerd Lakes to International Falls) Highs Wednesday will range from the 60s near Lake Superior with 70s and 80s elsewhere, shot at 90 degrees in the Brainerd area. Dew points Wednesday afternoon will climb into the 60s to lower 70s although lower dew points will be found near Lake Superior due to the cooler temps.
Thursday looks like a warm one with highs mainly in the 80s. Still humid as well for most of the day with dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s although it will be turning less humid in northern Minnesota, and this drier air/lower dew points will move farther south/east later in the day Thursday.