/Issued 3:44 PM CDT, Sunday, July 15, 2018/
12z European model (7.15.2018)
Update — Although the Euro is a dry solution for Duluth, its ensemble model hot off the presses is much wetter late this week with rain totals of a half inch or more in the Twin Ports between Thursday and Saturday morning so there is uncertainty showing up in the model guidance with this late week system.
12z GEFS model (7.15.2018)
North America 500mb height forecast valid through July 31, 2018 — Generally speaking it looks like the upper Midwest will be in a northwest flow aloft for the rest of this month which should lead to temperatures that are closer to average with a few days likely featuring below average temps and a few others with above average temps, but the core of the intense heat or prolonged heat should be focused over the western-southwest U.S., near the 5940+ upper level ridge.
12z European model (7.15.2018)
850mb Temperature Forecast valid through July 25, 2018. Note the blue and darker blue colors dropping farther S-SE out of northern Canada toward the end of this forecast period, will have to keep an eye on this pool of chilly temperatures as it could dip south of the Canadian border toward the end of this month.
Temperature departure map for the week of July 8, 2018 — Above average temperatures last week throughout the Northland with the greatest departures from average in the red colors on the map. Note: Duluth was nearly 8 degrees warmer than normal last week, wow!
Precipitation departure map for the week of July 8, 2018 — Very wet last week especially in the blue and purple colors on the map, those areas saw precipitation totals that were 1 to 3 inches above the average last week. A few areas in the Northland were much drier with precip totals that were below average last week (Yellow color on map)
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
19 days so far this summer (Since June 1) with a high temperature of at least 80 F. Average number of days during the summer (June 1 to August 31) with a high of at least 80 F is 23. Note: Summer of 2017 had 17 days with a high of at least 80 F, so we’ve already had more 80 degree days this summer compared to all of last summer and we’re only in mid July!
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
July 8 through 14, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
7/8: 89 F/+13 degrees above normal
7/9: 85 F/+9 degrees above normal
7/10: 82 F/+6 degrees above normal
7/11: 74 F/-2 degrees below normal
7/12: 84 F/+8 degrees above normal
7/13: 86 F/+9 degrees above normal
7/14: 89 F/+12 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
7/8: 68 F/+13 degrees above normal
7/9: 64 F/+9 degrees above normal
7/10: 56 F/+1 degree above normal
7/11: 60 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/12: 63 F/+8 degrees above normal
7/13: 65 F/+9 degrees above normal
7/14: 64 F/+8 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of July 8: 73.5 degrees (+7.7 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 1.36 inches
Normal: 0.89 inches
Departure: +0.47 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of July 8, 2018
Temperature: 75.1 degrees
Departure: +4.9 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 1.52 inches
Departure: +0.64 inches above normal
The warm and muggy conditions as of late will be going away at least for a little while. A cold front was moving through the Northland today with clouds along with a few scattered showers. This first front exits to the south/east early this evening, but a secondary cold front will pass through our area Monday morning and it’s behind this front when the much less humid conditions will arrive.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with isolated showers possible early. Lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Mostly sunny for Monday with highs ranging from around 70 to 80 degrees with the warmest temps in southern portions of the area.
Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty nice with high pressure in control — Highs mainly in the 70s Tuesday, and in the 70s to lower 80s Wednesday.
Note: Rain chances increase late this week, mainly for Thursday and Friday the way it looks now, but there is still time for this change.
Normal Temperatures for Duluth for July 16
Sunrise Monday: 5:31 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 8:58 PM CDT