/Issued 5:39 PM CDT, Thursday, July 19, 2018/
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from July 19, 2018 (Loop time, 10 AM to around 4:20 PM)
A nice looking circulation or spin on satellite imagery dropping southeast today into southwestern Minnesota.
21z HRRR model run
Simulated Radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM Friday. Scattered showers will continue to rotate through parts of the Northland into Friday morning.
12z GEFS model from July 19, 2018
500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid through August 4, 2018. Not a whole lot of change expected with the upper level wind pattern into early August. Northwest flow aloft to continue over the upper Midwest leading to temperatures that are close to average into early August, but some days will likely be below average, other days above average. Core of the intense/persistent heat to remain over the western/southwest U.S. and into parts of the southern Plains near the massive upper level ridge.
Low pressure averaging 1002mb was over southwest Minnesota late this afternoon. Rain showers, with some heavy downpours have been occurring today especially in western-southern portions of the Northland while it stayed dry in far northern Minnesota and in eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies were found in our area today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in far northern Minnesota and in northwest Wisconsin while mid 60s to low 70s were common in areas that had showers today, and also near Lake Superior due to the stronger onshore wind today.
Our weather through Friday night will be dominated by a strong and slow moving surface and upper level low pressure system which will head east/southeast out of southwest Minnesota, this system should be near or over southern Lake Michigan by daybreak Saturday — Will have generally mostly cloudy skies in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin into Friday, although some breaks in the clouds will likely occur from time to time. Rain showers will also continue although they will likely remain scattered in coverage meaning one location gets wet, while a few miles down the road little to no rain. There could also be a few isolated thunderstorms this evening and again Friday afternoon when instability is maximized, the highest chance for a thunderstorm will remain in western-southwest parts of our area through Friday.
Lows tonight and Friday night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs Friday in the 70s to lower 80s but locations that have more extensive cloud cover and more frequent showers will have temperatures in the 60s. Note: Lake wind continues Friday so it will be cooler near Lake Superior with temps in the 60s.
This weekend looks generally dry at the moment, although can’t totally rule out a few pop up showers Saturday thanks to the lingering effects of a surface/upper low which will be moving into the eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area over the weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the 70s. East wind is forecast to persist through the weekend near Lake Superior so it will be cooler by the lake.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Considerable cloudiness. A few showers possible mainly this evening. Low 58 to 63. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Considerable cloudiness. A few showers possible. High 67 to 72. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 72 to 77. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal Temperatures for July 20
Sunrise Friday: 5:35 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 8:55 PM CDT