/Issued 5:15 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 8, 2018/
Radar image from 5:21 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 8, 2018
Air Quality Alert in effect until 10 AM Thursday for parts of northwest and north central Minnesota (Black outlined area on map) More information at this link: https://www.pca.state.mn.us
NAM 18z run (8.8.2018)
500mb Height Forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Saturday.
One of the main weather stories through this weekend will be the heat wave that will cover the northern Rockies and northern Plains where daytime highs of 90 to around 100 degrees will be common. The Northland will remain under northwest flow aloft which will help keep the core of the hottest temperatures off to our west through Friday, but by this weekend the upper level ridge could make its way far enough east into the upper Midwest which shifts the main jet stream farther north into Canada, this could lead to near 90 degree temps in parts of the Northland this weekend, especially on Saturday the way it looks now.
12z GEFS model run 8.8.2018
Total Precipitation Anomaly Forecast valid through August 24, 2018.
Still looks like a drier than average to near normal precipitation pattern for the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes for roughly the next 2 weeks. The wet areas extend from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley (Green colors on map)
A warm and humid day with highs generally in the low to mid 80s today but a few locations have crept into the upper 80s including Brainerd, Siren, Superior and the Duluth Harbor. Dew points this afternoon were in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees near Lake Superior, eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with somewhat drier air in far northern Minnesota with dew points around 60 degrees at 4 PM today. We had a mix of sun and clouds throughout the area today with a few showers earlier in the day in far northern Minnesota. There has also been some smoke covering much of the Northland this afternoon thanks to the wildfires which continue to burn in the western U.S. and over parts of western Canada.
A cold front will continue to move southeast through the Northland this evening with some showers and thunderstorms occurring into early this evening in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. The environment is somewhat favorable for severe weather late this afternoon with CAPE in the 1500-3000 J/kg range along with 30 to 40 knots of wind shear — Hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, you can also expect heavy downpours and lightning. The threat for thunderstorms shifts south/east of our area before 9 PM.
The overnight hours looks dry with perhaps some patchy fog developing in spots. Lows will range from the lower 50s in the typical cool spots to the upper 50s and lower 60s elsewhere.
Thursday and Friday, and really right through the weekend look mainly dry as an upper level ridge builds east out of the northern Rockies. High temperatures will mainly be in the 80s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Thursday through Sunday, although there is a chance that a few locations could hit 90 degrees Friday and Saturday. It does appear that a lake wind will develop at times, especially on Sunday, and this will lead to cooler temperatures near Lake Superior on Sunday.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for August 9
Sunrise Thursday: 5:59 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 8:29 PM CDT