/Issued 7:22 PM CDT, Sunday, August 26, 2018/
Flash Flood Warning in effect until 8:45 PM this evening for parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin (Green outlined area map) Also included is the warning statement from the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion for heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding for far east-central Minnesota, northern Wisconsin into the upper Peninsula of Michigan.
Link to technical discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0720&yr=2018
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion for heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding for eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota.
Technical discussion at this link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0719&yr=2018
Goes-16 Enhanced Satellite loop from Sunday, August 26, 2018.
Loop time: 1:47 PM to 7:07 PM CDT.
Colder cloud tops in yellow, orange and red colors. We’ve seen a few waves of thunderstorms today in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
18z HRRR model
This model/run shows most of the thunderstorms later tonight staying in northern Minnesota, then we see additional thunderstorms Monday afternoon/night moving SW-NE across parts of central and northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin (As I mention below, it’s possible the HRRR model is a little too far north with these storms later tonight and again for Monday PM) Will just have to wait and see.
12z European Computer model
Monday looks quite humid especially in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin where dew points are forecast to range from the mid 60s to low 70s! Much drier air will move southeast out of northwest Minnesota for Tuesday.
12z European Ensemble model
Cooler (Below average temperatures) will be over the entire Northland for Tuesday and Wednesday as the warmer (Above average temperatures) get pushed farther south/east, at least for now!
Local Storm Reports for Sunday, August 26, 2018
•6:30 PM: Heavy Rain — 2.92 inch. Sturgeon Lake, MN (Pine County)
•6:26 PM: Heavy Rain — 1.56 inch. 6 ENE Patzau, WI (Douglas County)
•6:08 PM: Heavy Rain — 1.41 inch. 2 SW Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)
•6:06 PM: Heavy Rain — 2.07 inch. Barnes, WI (Bayfield County)
•6:03 PM: Heavy Rain — 1.35 inch. 7 WNW Minong, WI (Washburn County)
•6:00 PM: Heavy Rain — 1.70 inch. 3 SSW Bruno, MN (Pine County)
•6:00 PM: Heavy Rain — 1.64 inch. 1 W Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)
5:45 PM: Heavy Rain — 1.03 inch. 1 SSW Pleasant Valley, MN (Carlton County)
•5:15 PM: Hail — 0.88 inch. 1 SSE Balsam, MN (Aitkin County)
•5:05 PM: Hail — 1.25 inch. 5 NW Tamarack, MN (Aitkin County) Half Dollar sized hail.
•4:47 PM: Hail — 1.75 inch. McGregor, MN (Aitkin County) Golf Ball sized hail.
•4:45 PM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 3 SSE McGregor, MN (Aitkin County)
We’ve already had a few waves of showers and thunderstorms affect parts of the Northland today, these storms have produced heavy rainfall, lightning, gusty winds and some hail with the largest hail as big as golf balls reported in parts of eastern Aitkin County around 5 PM today.
There is a well defined warm front in place over central Minnesota early this evening with a stationary front/cold front draped from northern Minnesota back into the western Dakotas. Low pressure was over central South Dakota.
Temperatures at 6 PM ranged from the mid 60s to low 70s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to the 80s over the southern half of Minnesota.
Tonight through Monday night:
Will see a cold front move slowly E/SE out of northern Minnesota during the next 24 hours. By Monday evening this front is forecast to extend from central Lake Superior to north-central Wisconsin to south central Minnesota.
Warm and muggy conditions will be in place south/east of the cold front with much cooler/drier air behind the cold front, the latter airmass will be spreading NW-SE across the Northland by Tuesday with a hint of fall in the air on both those days.
We should continue to see scattered thunderstorms develop and track through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight with potential for heavy rainfall. There is also a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms tonight with favorable parameters in place for stronger storms.
A break from the thunderstorms is expected Monday morning, but additional storms could develop and impact parts of the Northland Monday afternoon/evening. There is some uncertainty on where the afternoon storms will setup as computer models disagree on what areas get hit, some models show the storms in central into northeast Minnesota, others farther south/east from southern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. Stay tuned!
The threat for thunderstorms and heavy rain will shift well south of our area by Tuesday as the cold front pushes south and out of our area — Much cooler temperatures with possible drizzle/scattered showers Tuesday, mainly dry Wednesday the way it looks now.
Lows tonight should mainly be in the 60s. Highs Monday ranging from the 60s in northern Minnesota to the lower 70s to middle 80s in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Highs Tuesday in the 50s and 60s.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for August 27
Sunrise Monday: 6:22 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 7:58 PM CDT