/Issued 5:51 PM CDT, Sunday, September 2, 2018
Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Model guidance has the swath of heaviest rainfall and greatest flood potential remaining south/east of the Northland on Tuesday, but there still could be areas of heavy rainfall which may lead to flooding in parts of east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
RAP model 22z (5 PM)
If you want some cool fall air then this isn’t the type of pattern you wanna see in early September.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
RAP model 22z (5 PM)
One of the ingredients for this upcoming heavy rainfall event is the widespread area of very high PWATS of close to 2.00 inches late this afternoon, this area of deep moisture will lift north into our area Monday night, and will remain over our area Tuesday before it gets pushed south/east by Wednesday.
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z GEFS model 9-2-2018
500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid through September 18, 2018. Looks like our area will remain in a west or southwest flow aloft into mid-month, no signs of a cooler more persistent NW flow anytime soon.
Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu
Temperature departure map for the week of August 26, 2018. Most of northeast Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin had above average temperatures last week, but areas of northern Minnesota had below average temperatures represented in the green, blue and purple colors on map.
Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu
Precipitation departure map for the week of August 26, 2018. Most of the Northland had above average precipitation totals last week, exception was in parts of northern Minnesota where precip totals were below average last week (Yellow color on map)
Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu
Temperature Departure map for summer 2018 for the CONUS (Jun-Aug)
Portions of the northern Rockies saw below average temps this summer while the western-southern U.S. had a very warm summer compared to average.
Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu
Precipitation Departure map for summer 2018 for the CONUS (Jun-Aug)
Yellow areas=Below average precipitation
Green/Blue areas=Above average precipitation
Storm Reports from around the Northland for September 2, 2018
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
•6:13 AM: Hail — 0.75 inch. 5 E Leader, MN (Cass County)
•6:23 AM: Hail — 0.75 inch. 7 ENE Leader, MN (Cass County)
•6:25 AM: Hail — 0.75 inch. 4 NW Lake Shore, MN (Cass County)
•6:26 AM: Hail — 0.88 inch. 6 WSW Pequot Lakes, MN (Cass County)
•6:32 AM: Hail — 1.00 inch. 4 W Jenkins, MN (Cass County) Quarter sized hail.
•6:37 AM: Hail — 0.50 inch. 1 NW Pequot Lakes, MN (Crow Wing County)
•6:40 AM: Hail — 0.50 inch. Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)
•6:41 AM: Hail — 0.75 inch. Pine River, MN (Cass County)
•6:45 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 39 mph. Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)
•7:05 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 40 mph. 4 S Emily, MN (Crow Wing County)
•7:12 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 1 ENE Aitkin, MN (Aitkin County) Pickup truck lifted onto another truck on 2nd street.
•7:12 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — Aitkin, MN (Aitkin County) Several trees knocked down. Largest tree was approximately 2 feet in diameter.
•7:46 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 40 mph. 1 NNW McGregor, MN (Aitkin County)
•9:15 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 42 mph. 2 SW Proctor, MN (St. Louis County)
•9:44 AM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 1 W Palmers, MN (St. Louis County)
•10:30 AM: Heavy Rain — 1.50 inch. 4 W Seeley, WI (Sawyer County)
•11:07 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 48 mph. Ashland, WI (Ashland County)
•11:34 AM: Marine Thunderstorm Wind — 25 mph. 3 E La Pointe, WI (Ashland County)
Rainfall Reports for September 2, 2018
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/; https://mesowest.utah.edu
Ashland, WI: 1.20 in
Hayward, WI: 1.03 in
2 WNW Palmers, MN: 0.96 in
5 SE Breezy Point, MN: 0.83 in
Glidden, WI: 0.82 in
Clam Lake, WI: 0.75 in
Walker, MN: 0.66 in
Pine River, MN: 0.38 in
Saginaw, MN: 0.34 in
Brainerd, MN: 0.33 in
Two Harbors, MN: 0.31 in
Floodwood, MN: 0.30 in
Sturgeon Lake, MN: 0.24 in
Duluth Airport: 0.24 in
5 E Hibbing, MN: 0.19 in
2 NE Duluth, MN: 0.16 in
Hill City, MN: 0.15 in
Northome, MN: 0.15 in
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.13 in
Ely, MN: 0.13 in
Isabella, MN: 0.09 in
Superior Airport: 0.07 in
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
August 26 through September 1, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
8/26: 76 F/+3 degrees above normal
8/27: 82 F/+10 degrees above normal
8/28: 59 F/-13 degrees below normal
8/29: 70 F/-2 degrees below normal
8/30: 72 F/+1 degree above normal
8/31: 78 F/+7 degrees above normal
9/1: 81 F/+10 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
8/26: 58 F/+5 degrees above normal
8/27: 57 F/+4 degrees above normal
8/28: 53 F/Normal
8/29: 49 F/-3 degrees below normal
8/30: 49 F/-3 degrees below normal
8/31: 62 F/+10 degrees above normal
9/1: 60 F/+8 degrees above normal
Note: Average Temperature for the week of August 26: 64.7 degrees (+2.8 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 1.70 inches
Normal: 0.89 inches
Departure: +0.81 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of August 26, 2018
Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Temperature: 65.7 degrees
Departure: +0.1 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 1.74 inches
Departure: +0.82 inches above normal
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
*2.47 inches of rain since August 21 at the Duluth Airport with at least 0.01 inch of rain falling on 7 out of the 13 days from August 21 to September 2.
*2018 through September 2 is now tied with 2012 for 2nd place for most number of 80 degree days at 48 days. The record for most number of 80 degree days in a calendar year is 53 days which was set in 1988.
*August 2018 had 8 days with below average temperatures — See list below
1st: -4 degrees below normal
2nd: -8 degrees below normal
3rd: -7 degrees below normal
4th: -1 degree below normal
15th: -1 degree below normal
28th: -6 degrees below normal
29th: -2 degrees below normal
30th: -1 degree below normal
Meteorological summer 2018 climate stats
Period: June 1 through August 31
Duluth, Minnesota
Average Temperature: 66.2 degrees
Normal: 63.4 degrees
Departure: +2.8 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 11.78 inches
Normal: 11.78 inches
Departure: 0.00 inches (Normal)
23 days with thunder
39 days with a high of at least 80 F (Average is 23 days)
1 day with a high of at least 90 F (Average is 2 days)
***8th warmest summer in station history***
International Falls, Minnesota
Average Temperature: 64.4 degrees
Normal: 63.1 degrees
Departure: +1.3 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 9.51 inches
Normal: 10.43 inches
Departure: -0.92 inches below normal
24 days with thunder
42 days with a high of at least 80 F (Average is 32 days)
0 days with a high of at least 90 F (Average is 4 days)
Brainerd, Minnesota
Average Temperature: 68.6 degrees
Normal: 67.5 degrees
Departure: +1.1 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 11.05 inches
Normal: 11.24 inches
Departure: -0.19 inches below normal
23 days with thunder
48 days with a high of at least 80 F (Average is 42 days)
3 days with a high of at least 90 F (Average is 6 days)
***16th warmest summer in station history***
Hibbing, Minnesota
Average Temperature: 62.6 degrees
Normal: 62.0 degrees
Departure: +0.6 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 8.56 inches
Normal: 11.68 inches
Departure: -3.12 inches below normal
22 days with thunder
27 days with a high of at least 80 F (Average is 29 days)
0 days with a high of at least 90 F (Average is 3 days)
***16th driest summer in station history***
Ashland, Wisconsin
Average Temperature: 65.0 degrees
Normal: 64.0 degrees
Departure: +1.0 degree above normal
Total Precipitation: 17.87 inches
Normal: 11.66 inches
Departure: +6.21 inches above normal
18 days with thunder
44 days with a high of at least 80 F (Average is 39 days)
4 days with a high of at least 90 F (Average is 6 days)
***3rd wettest summer in station history***
Weather Synopsis
An area of high pressure was over the northern Plains late this afternoon while a cold front extended from northeast Minnesota southwest Minnesota. An area of showers and thunderstorms with some heavy downpours, hail and gusty winds moved through parts of the Northland this morning, but this afternoon was mainly dry with a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 70s. It was a little muggy today with dew points in the 60s near Lake Superior, eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with lower dew points in the 50s across northern Minnesota.
Quiet and cool conditions for tonight under partly cloudy skies with areas of fog late. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies Monday with comfortable temperatures in the 70s along with an easterly wind.
High pressure will move over the Northland Monday while a cold front near the Minnesota-Iowa border stalls out and comes back north as a warm front Monday night/Tuesday while a cold front approaches from the west on Tuesday — Southerly winds and deep tropical moisture surge north into our area Monday night into Tuesday while rain and scattered thunderstorms occur due to the lift provided by the different fronts. Certainly is some potential for heavy rainfall in parts of the area due to the very humid airmass that’s expected to be in place late Monday night and Tuesday.
Mid to late week looks mainly dry at the moment as high pressure sets up to our north which will cause a dry/easterly flow in the Northland.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 3
High: 70
Low: 51
Sunrise Monday: 6:31 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 7:44 PM CDT
Tim
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