/Issued 5:44 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 4, 2018/
Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
The big weather story for tonight will be the heavy rain and potential flooding especially just south/southeast of the Northland, although some flooding could even occur in portions of northwest Wisconsin, especially around the Hayward lakes, Hurley, Upson areas.
Source: http://www.pivotalweather.com
22z (5 PM) HRRR model
Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM Wednesday. Rain, heavy at times from southern Minnesota to central Wisconsin this evening will gradually diminish from west to east Wednesday morning.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
22z (5 PM) RAP model analysis
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Source: http://weather.cod.edu
Goes-16 Low Level water vapor satellite loop from Tuesday, September 4, 2018.
Loop time: 11:57 AM through 4:57 PM.
An incredible amount of moisture streaming north out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes today.
A very soupy airmass over the Northland this afternoon with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees on this 4th day of September! Wow
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z GEFS model 9-4-2018
Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid through September 20, 2018.
Blue colors=Below normal temperatures
Orange/red colors=Above normal temperatures
The upper Midwest and western Great Lakes will see below normal temperatures transition to above normal temperatures as an upper level ridge redevelops next week into the middle of the month.
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z GEFS model 9-4-2018
500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid through September 20, 2018.
Still looking at either a westerly flow aloft or southwest flow aloft during the next 2 weeks or so. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures ahead for the next few days, but trends per long range model data show us warming up quite a bit next week. No strong signal for a cooler NW flow aloft for the next 2 weeks per long range model data.
Source: https://www.weather.gov/mkx/
Note: Check out how much rain has fallen in Wisconsin since mid August, wow!
Estimated rainfall totals from Aug 16 through Sept 3, 2018.
Source: https://www.weather.gov/mkx/
Estimated rainfall totals from Aug 16 through Sept 3, 2018.
Preliminary Rainfall Totals for September 4, 2018
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/; https://mesowest.utah.edu
Note: Totals listed below through 5 PM Tuesday, September 4.
Keewatin, MN: 1.04 inch
4 SE Britt, MN: 0.94 inch
3 W Leonidas, MN: 0.80 inch
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.72 inch
Ely, MN: 0.69 inch
Hayward, WI: 0.67 inch
Minong, WI: 0.57 inch
Grand Marais, MN: 0.57 inch
Siren, WI: 0.55 inch
Hinckley, MN: 0.53 inch
Clam Lake, WI: 0.46 inch
Isabella, MN: 0.36 inch
Pine River, MN: 0.31 inch
Ashland, WI: 0.30 inch
Bigfork, MN: 0.30 inch
Brainerd, MN: 0.29 inch
Superior Airport: 0.27 inch
Two Harbors, MN: 0.22 inch
Duluth Airport: 0.17 inch
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.10 inch
Weather Synopsis
Mostly cloudy skies covered most of the Northland today, but there has been some breaks in the clouds at times especially over the northwest portion of the area, up near Bigfork and International Falls. Highs today were in the upper 60s to middle 70s, near to slightly above average for early September.
A massive ridge remained anchored to our east today with a moist S-SW flow aloft over the upper Midwest. A cold front moving through the upper Midwest today combined with the abundant moisture in place led to widespread rain from southern to eastern Minnesota into western, central and northern Wisconsin today. Meanwhile in our area we had some rain this morning, but most of the rain this afternoon had shifted into northwest Wisconsin, roughly along and east of a line from Hinckley to Ashland with the heavier downpours around the Hayward lakes area.
Tonight:
Mostly cloudy skies should continue as a cold front moves east across the area. Rain will be most widespread from far eastern Minnesota into southern portions of northwest Wisconsin tonight while scattered showers occur elsewhere mainly before Midnight. A few thunderstorms are possible as well this evening, and those storms would contain torrential downpours. Otherwise for tonight expect areas of fog and drizzle as a very muggy airmass will remain over the area for most of the night. Lows will range from around 50 degrees in far northern Minnesota to the upper 50s to mid 60s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Wednesday:
Less humid! Dew points which were in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees today will crash to the 30s and 40s on Wednesday as a much drier airmass advects into the Northland behind tonight’s cold frontal passage. Partly to mostly sunny skies for Wednesday with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s which is very close to average for early September.
…Looking Ahead…
Thursday, Friday and Saturday continue to look dry in our area with high pressure in control of our weather. Highs in the mid 60s to low 70s Thursday through Saturday with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s with 30s possible in the typical cool spots around the area. Note: It does look like will have an easterly wind near Lake Superior especially Friday and Saturday which could lead to slightly cooler daytime highs near the lake.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 5
High: 69
Low: 50
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:34 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 7:40 PM CDT
Tim