Record warmth today (Sept 16) at International Falls and Brainerd, Minn. Cooler pattern on the way with a few chances of rain

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/Issued 5:28 PM CDT, Sunday, September 16, 2018/

Source:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu

Average low temperature – Departure from normal for the week of September 9, 2018.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Sunday, September 16, 2018.

Loop time:  9:52 AM to 4:07 PM.

The marine layer held tough most of the day near Lake Superior with low clouds and fog, but late this afternoon has seen some improvement as winds turn more to the south pushing most of the low clouds and fog out over the lake.  Also of note is the development of cumulus clouds lifting north on the humid southerly winds away from Lake Superior this afternoon.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

18z HRRR model

Simulated Radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM Tuesday.

This model keeps the thunderstorms and heavy rain showers south of the Twin Ports Monday.

Source:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Source:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu

Total Precipitation – Percent of mean for the week of September 9, 2018.

Source:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu

Temperature Departure map for the week of September 9, 2018.

Average temperature last week in Duluth was over 11 degrees above average for the period September 9 through 15 — Incredible!

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

September 9-15, 2018

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

9/9:  69 F/+1 degree above normal
9/10:  76 F/+9 degrees above normal
9/11:  81 F/+14 degrees above normal
9/12:  77 F/+10 degrees above normal
9/13:  81 F/+15 degrees above normal
9/14:  80 F/+14 degrees above normal
9/15:  71 F/+6 degrees above normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

9/9:  50 F/+1 degree above normal
9/10:  52 F/+4 degrees above normal
9/11:  61 F/+13 degrees above normal
*9/12:  66 F/+18 degrees above normal
*9/13:  63 F/+16 degrees above normal
*9/14:  69 F/+22 degrees above normal
9/15:  62 F/+16 degrees above normal

*=Tied record high-low temp for the date.

Note:  Average temperature for the week of September 9:  68.4 degrees; +11.3 degrees above normal.  Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  1.74 inches
Normal:  1.01 inches
Departure:  +0.73 inches above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of September 9, 2018
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  67.1 degrees
Departure:  +6.8 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  0.36 inches
Departure:  -0.43 inches below normal

24 hour rainfall reports
Saturday, September 15-Sunday, September 16, 2018

Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Big Falls, MN:  2.80 in
13 SSE Littlefork, MN:  2.64 in
3 S Tower, MN:  2.62 in
2 NNE Bigfork, MN:  2.35 in
Winton, MN:  2.14 in
2 NNW Hoyt Lakes, MN:  1.40 in
Skibo, MN:  1.17 in
Embarrass, MN:  1.12 in
Loman, MN:  1.04 in
2 E Celina, MN:  1.00 in
3 E Orr, MN:  0.89 in
25 E Ely, MN:  0.81 in
Babbitt, MN:  0.80 in
Cook, MN:  0.53 in
International Falls, MN:  0.35 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.20 in
Hibbing, MN:  0.11 in

Storm Reports for Seprtember 15, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

11:45 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  Ely, MN (St. Louis County)

9:22 PM:  Hail — 0.75 inch.  5 S Tower, MN (St. Louis County)

10:00 PM:  Flash Flood — 6 E Side Lake, MN (St. Louis County)  St. Louis County highway 65 was washed out between the Sturgeon River crossing and Luna Lake.

8:11 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 2 SSW Side Lake, MN (St. Louis County)  A tree was reported down near the intersection of Green Rock road and Belchner road.

2:09 AM (9/15)  Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 1 NNW Gary New Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  18 inch weakened willow tree snapped off 8 ft above ground.  Trunk showed evidence of decay.

2:09 AM (9/15)  Thunderstorm Wind Damage — Gary New Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  12 inch diameter pine snapped off 6 ft above ground.

2:09 AM (9/15)  Thunderstorm Wind — 55 mph.  Gary New Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  Wind speed estimated from tree damage.

…Climate Data for September 15, 2018…

Duluth, Minnesota

2nd warmest low temperature on record for September 15 with a low on Saturday of 62 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 15 is 66 degrees set in 1897.

3rd wettest September 15 on record with 1.74 inches on rain on Saturday.  The record wettest September 15 on record is 1.99 inches set in 1897.

Brainerd, Minnesota

2nd warmest high temperature on record for September 15 with a high on Saturday of 85 degrees.  The record high for September 15 is 89 degrees set in 1939.

2nd warmest low temperature on record for September 15 with a low on Saturday of 67 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 15 is 69 degrees set in 1939.

Ashland, Wisconsin

Tied for 3rd warmest low temperature on record for September 15 with a low on Saturday of 62 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 15 is 69 degrees set in 1920.

Hibbing, Minnesota

4th warmest low temperature on record for September 15 with a low on Saturday of 60 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 15 is 64 degrees set in 1939.

5th wettest September 15 on record with 0.50 inches of rain on Saturday.  The record wettest September 15 on record is 0.92 inches set in 2004.

International Falls, Minnesota

Tied for 4th warmest low temperature on record for September 15 with a low on Saturday of 56 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 15 is 66 degrees set in 1911.

4th wettest September 15 on record with 0.40 inches of rain on Saturday.  The record wettest September 15 on record is 1.50 inches set in 2004.

Note:  Both International Falls and Brainerd, Minnesota set new record high temperatures for September 16.  At International Falls, the previous record high was 85 degrees set in 1911, tied in 1922.  At Brainerd, the previous record high was 82 degrees set in 1927, tied in 1968, 1987 and 2015.

Weather Synopsis

An area of low pressure was over southeast Manitoba province late this afternoon with a warm front north of our area and a cold front off to our west — Warm, gusty southerly winds were found across the area today as we’re in the warm sector of this storm system.  Highs today ranged from the low 80s to upper 80s, with Brainerd, Minnesota topping out at 90 degrees on this 16th day of September!  Cooler east winds lingered, however, closer to Lake Superior keeping temps in the 60s and 70s today while low clouds and fog persisted most of the day which was followed by some late day clearing.

[Tonight]

Cold front moves through the Northland tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with a few spotty showers or isolated thunderstorms possible later on.  Lows will range from the 40s in the northwest section of the area, Grand Rapids to International Falls corridor to the 60s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

[Monday]

Cooler and less humid conditions as we finally get rid of the stagnant weather pattern that has been in place during the last 5 days or so.  Cold front shifts south/east of the Northland but a disturbance approaching from the northern Plains will likely lead to some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday/Monday night mainly over east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Monday in the 50s in northern Minnesota to the 70s around the Hayward lakes area.

[Looking Ahead]

An active weather pattern Tuesday through Thursday with a frontal boundary remaining south of our area while an area of low pressure rides NE along that boundary.  The greatest potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms looks to setup from southern Minnesota to central Wisconsin from Tuesday through Thursday, but some rain is also expected at times in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin during the middle of the week.  It will be cooler Tuesday through Thursday but likely not cold enough for frost due to the expected cloud cover and possible rain.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 17

High:  65
Low:   46

Sunrise Monday:  6:49 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:16 PM CDT

Tim

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