/Issued 5:05 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Loop time: 12:07 PM to 5:27 PM
Generally overcast skies over the Northland today, but there has been some thinning in the clouds to allow for some sun at times.
18z NAM 9-18-2018
18z NAM model 9-18-2018
12z GEFS model 9-18-2018
Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid through October 4, 2018.
Blue colors=Below average temperatures
Orange/red colors=Above average temperatures
The Northland looks to have generally below average temperatures into early October, yes we could have a milder day mixed in here and there, but the overall trend is for cooler than normal temperatures during the next 2 weeks or so.
Mid to upper level winds are generally out of the west across the region today while an upper level trough turns the upper level winds more to the southwest over the Pacific northwest per RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. The combination of a frontal boundary sitting south of Minnesota and embedded disturbances in the westerly flow aloft passing through the upper Midwest has caused a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall across the southern half of Minnesota over the last 24 hours, almost all of this rain has stayed south of the Northland though. Our local area had partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies today with areas of fog and drizzle at times. Highs ranged from the mid 50s to low 60s.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows ranging from the upper 30s to lower 50s. A few spotty showers can’t be ruled out mainly over southern portions of the area, but most of us should be dry tonight.
There could be some rain at times affecting southern portions of the Northland on Wednesday, but the greater chance for rain should setup just a little farther south. Mainly dry in northern Minnesota. Two fronts will impact the upper Midwest Wednesday with a cold front over northern Minnesota and a stationary front near the Minnesota-Iowa border. Highs Wednesday will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
The big weather story will be the system that is set to bring widespread soaking rains to the Northland for Thursday. Low pressure is still forecast to lift northeast out of eastern Colorado during the middle of the week, this low could deepen a bit as it lifts through the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes late this week — This low combined with an upper level trough approaching from the west coupled with strong jet stream dynamics should result in widespread lift over the upper Midwest which will lead to widespread rainfall over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Thursday and Thursday night with some lingering showers on Friday.
Moisture advection will be strong on Thursday with PWATS building to around 1.50 to 1.80 inches in eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin so some heavy rainfall rates are certainly possible as a warm front lifts NE toward those areas. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible Thursday mostly over eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin as some elevated instability builds NE out of southern Minnesota.
Note: There is another system showing up in the long range model guidance for early next week but the strength, track and timing of this potential storm are uncertain, but another round of rain, possibly heavy with some thunder is possible in parts of the Northland between Sunday night-Tuesday, September 23-25 the way it looks now.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 19
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:52 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 7:12 PM CDT