/Issued 5:16 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 26, 2018/
Radar loop ending at 4:55 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 26, 2018.
Seeing some rain showers move southeast across northwest into north-central Minnesota late this afternoon, these showers should continue to move off to the southeast tonight, and will eventually reach northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later this evening. Also shown on this map is the wind direction which is out of the SW this afternoon, winds will shift to the west/northwest by Thursday afternoon as a cold front moves through the area.
18z HRRR model 9-26-2018
Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM Friday. A few rounds of showers expected to move through the Northland through Thursday evening.
Note: Should see more blue dots show up on this map by this weekend as other stations have their first freeze of the season.
12z GEFS model 9-26-2018
Precipitation Anomaly forecast valid thru October 12, 2018.
Green colors represent above average precipitation — Potential is there for a somewhat active weather pattern over the next 2 weeks or so across most of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes with several chances of rain, and maybe even some snow depending on temperatures and storm tracks.
This month is still running above average over all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with average temperatures between 1 and 5 degrees warmer than normal thru September 25 — See list below.
Duluth, MN: +5.2 degrees above normal
Ashland, WI: +3.7 degrees above normal
Brainerd, MN: +3.2 degrees above normal
Hibbing, MN: +2.2 degrees above normal
International Falls, MN: +1.7 degrees above normal
Rainfall reports for September 25, 2018
Babbitt, MN: 0.17 in
Wolf Ridge ELC: 0.16 in
Grand Portage, MN: 0.15 in
25 E Ely, MN: 0.14 in
Embarrass, MN: 0.13 in
Grand Marais, MN: 0.13 in
Ashland, WI: 0.07 in
Hayward, WI: 0.05 in
Duluth, MN: 0.05 in
Hibbing, MN: 0.05 in
Brainerd, MN: 0.03 in
The Northland got a break in the rainfall today, in fact the weather wasn’t bad at all for late September with mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies. Highs were in the mid to upper 50s, near to slightly below average for the time of year.
Its an active weather pattern right now with a NW flow aloft in place. Tuesday’s system is over eastern Canada while the next one is lined up over Manitoba province and is diving SE into the upper Midwest.
An area of low pressure will track from western Manitoba province to just north of Minnesota by dawn while a warm front and cold front connected to this low move across the Northland tonight, this system will bring some showers to the area tonight under mostly cloudy skies. Lows will range from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
Occasional showers under mostly cloudy skies. An upper level trough will dig into the region from the north on Thursday while a cold front continues to move through the Northland — This system should bring some showers to the area, with maybe even a rumble of thunder thanks to some weak instability with CAPE of 100 to around 500 J/kg combined with steepening mid level lapse rates to around 7.5 c/km. Highs Thursday ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Friday and Saturday look rather chilly for late September as 850mb temperatures fall to between -3 and -8C while surface temps range from around 40 to 50 degrees on Friday, and mainly in the 40s for Saturday. Note: A widespread frost and freeze is expected over much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday night-Saturday morning as lows fall into the 20s to lower 30s, slightly warmer near Lake Superior.
Scattered showers of rain, snow and possibly some graupel are also expected on Friday with the greatest chance for snow flurries in northern Minnesota.
A wet weather pattern could return sometime early to mid next week which could be followed by another shot of cold Canadian air sometime between October 4-7 the way it looks now.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 27
Sunrise Thursday: 7:02 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 6:56 PM CDT