/Issued 6:03 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 31, 2018/
Red line and Black lines on map are the potential storm tracks for both systems.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Wednesday, October 31, 2018.
A strong mid/upper level trough and area of low pressure is moving E/NE across Texas tonight, this storm will head into the eastern U.S. for Thursday and Friday. Rain and severe thunderstorms occurring with that storm the next few days.
18z NAM model 10-31-2018
Active stretch of weather has begun, and it should carry over into next week.
12z European Computer model (ECMWF) 10-31-2018
Will see if this trend continues to show up in future model runs, but so far the longer range models have been consistently showing a cold period setting up for the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes and other parts of the U.S. as we get into the latter portion of next week. More info below.
12z GEFS model 10-31-2018
Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid thru November 16, 2018.
Blue colors=Below average temperatures
Orange/red colors=Above average temperatures
Model guidance continues to show a chilly first half of November over a large portion of the U.S. represented by the blue colors on the map, note how the cooler than average temps become more widespread while expanding south/east as we head into the 1st-2nd week of November.
November Climate Averages for Duluth, Minnesota
Temperature: 28.8 degrees
Snowfall: 13.7 inches
Precipitation: 2.09 inches
Normal high on the 1st: 44 degrees
Normal high on the 30th: 28 degrees
Normal low on the 1st: 29 degrees
Normal low on the 30th: 14 degrees
Warmest November on record: 40.6 degrees set in 1899
Coldest November on record: 18.8 degrees set in 1959
Snowiest November on record: 50.1 inches set in 1991
Least snowiest November on record: Trace set in 1928
Wettest November on record: 5.08 inches set in 2000
Driest November on record: 0.09 inches set in 1917
Average number of days with snowfall 0.1 inch or greater: 9
Average number of days with snowfall 1.0 inch or greater: 4
Average number of days with a subzero low temperature: 1
Astronomical Data for November
Sunrise on the 1st: 7:51 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th: 7:31 AM CST
Sunset on the 1st: 5:53 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th: 4:22 PM CST
Note: Daylight Saving Time ends on Sunday, November 4 at 2 AM — We fall back an hour this weekend!
Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Nothing too scary when it comes to our weather for Halloween 2018. A seasonably cool but breezy day with mostly cloudy skies across northern Minnesota while farther south skies were mostly cloudy but have been clearing late this afternoon with some sunshine occurring over east-central Minnesota up to Duluth including much of northwest Wisconsin. Highs today ranged from the mid 30s to upper 40s with the ‘warm’ spots being Brainerd, Hinckley, Siren and Hayward. Winds today were out west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts earlier in the day.
Cool but mainly dry tonight and Thursday, but there could be a few flurries tonight in northern Minnesota, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected. Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s with highs Thursday in the mid 30s to low 40s. An area of high pressure will settle into the Northland during the next 24 hours which will keep our area on the quiet side.
A few changes take place for Thursday night and Friday. An area of low pressure is forecast to track SE out of the northern Plains spreading an area of rain or snow into western-southern portions of the Northland, however, it doesn’t look like there would be much if any snow accumulation out of this system with marginal temperatures in place for snow. Note: Will also see the winds change direction with east winds developing Thursday night and Friday, this could cause a few lake effect rain or snow showers near Lake Superior, but this also doesn’t look like a real big deal.
The next system for this weekend could have more of an impact on our area, but once again temperatures will be marginal for snow, but cold enough air could be in place across parts of the Northland for snow to fall with some accumulation possible, these chances look greatest for areas that are away from Lake Superior, while mostly rain or a rain-snow mix occurs closer to Lake Superior the way it looks now.
The third system for early next week (Mon-Wed) looks kinda similar to the one this weekend, although a stronger upper level trough and deeper surface low could end up developing over the Great Lakes next Tuesday or Wednesday.
Late next week/weekend is looking quite cold around here with potential for daytime highs in the 20s, and overnight lows in the single digits and teens (Roughly from Nov 8-11) Normal highs during that aforementioned time frame are in the mid 30s to low 40s, normal lows are in the low to mid 20s.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 1
Sunrise Thursday: 7:51 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 5:53 PM CDT