Low pressure over southwest Iowa at Noon today will track northeast into central Wisconsin by late tonight. The colder air over the Dakotas and far northwest Minnesota will begin to push S-E later tonight as the low exits to the E.
Winter Storm Warning in pink
Winter Weather Advisory in purple
These headlines remain in effect through Friday (12 PM)
Radar loop thru 12:30 PM, Thursday, December 27, 2018.
Still a ways to go with this storm with moisture continuing to lift from south to north across the upper Midwest.
My snowfall forecast looks good so far.
Highest snow totals will be along the Higher Terrain of the North Shore of Lake Superior
Lowest snowfall totals across southern portions of northwest Wisconsin, Hayward Lakes area.
17z HRRR model 12-27-18
Simulated radar forecast valid thru 5 AM Friday
Darker blue colors indicate heavier snowfall with the lighter blue colors indicating lighter snow.
Preliminary Snowfall Reports through 11 AM Thursday, December 27, 2018
12 WNW Silver Bay, MN: 10.0 inch
3 E Finland, MN: 9.5 inch
3 ESE Orr, MN: 8.1 inch
1 N Federal Dam, MN: 8.0 inch
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 7.1 inch
5 NW Walker, MN: 7.0 inch
7 NNW Two Harbors, MN: 7.0 inch
8 NNW Coleraine, MN: 6.0 inch
1 NW Kabetogama, MN: 5.5 inch
6 E Island Lake, MN: 5.3 inch
Duluth Airport: 5.1 inch (Thru Noon today)
4 NE Siren, WI: 5.0 inch
7 SE Grand Rapids, MN: 5.0 inch
Hill City, MN: 5.0 inch
3 NNE Lester Park, MN: 4.5 inch
Virginia, MN: 4.5 inch
3 NW Aurora, MN: 4.0 inch
14 W Isabella, MN: 4.0 inch
2 WNW Gary New Duluth, MN: 4.0 inch
2 SSW Bayfield, WI: 3.6 inch
Cloquet, MN: 3.5 inch
Moose Lake, MN: 3.5 inch
2 E Esko, MN: 3.1 inch
21 N Grand Marais, MN: 3.0 inch
Willow River, MN: 3.0 inch
Wrenshall, MN: 2.7 inch
1 SE Oulu, WI: 2.5 inch
Holyoke, MN: 2.1 inch
Note: New snowfall record has already been set at Duluth, Minnesota for December 27 with 5.1 inches of snow thru Noon today; This breaks the previous snowfall record of 4.8 inches which was set December 27, 1923.
Road Condition Links
Wisconsin — https://511wi.gov/map#:Alerts
12 PM Winter Storm Update
Low pressure was over western Iowa with a large area of 4mb/2 hour pressure falls covering southern, central and eastern Wisconsin late this Thursday morning, should see the surface low move NE to where the pressure falls are the greatest.
So far this storm is going pretty much as forecast with a mild airmass in place we’re seeing low snow ratios especially in the Twin Ports on south, the airmass is cooler farther W-N from Duluth so snow ratios have been around or a bit above 10:1. Basically we’ve seen a wet/slushy type snow where snow ratios are below 10:1, a bit fluffier snow where snow ratios are at or above 10:1.
Temperatures across the Northland as of Noon today ranged from the upper 20s in far northern Minnesota (International Falls, Orr and Crane Lake areas) to the low and mid 30s across the rest of northeast Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin.
Looking at the upper level temps — 850mb temperatures at Noon today range from -5C at International Falls to -1C at Duluth to around 0C at Hayward. Snow has been the main P-type in the colder airmass in northern Minnesota, while we’ve seen snow, rain and some sleet in the milder airmass across east-central Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin, including in parts of Duluth and close to Lake Superior.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
•Snow continues through tonight although it will start to taper off early Friday morning.
•Temperatures remaining in the 32 to 34 degree range this afternoon, and from 30 to 33 degrees this evening. Temperatures drop to the upper teens and lower 20s by 6 AM Friday, and temps will continue to fall through the day Friday.
•With the mild temps in place, snow will continue to be on the wet/slushy/heavy side. As the colder air moves in, the slush will turn to ice or packed snow.
•Travel will continue to be difficult through Friday morning with snow and slush covered roads.
•Snowfall storm totals by Friday morning will be in the 8 to 12 inch range with the higher amounts on top of the hill, lower amounts closer to 8 inches below the hill.