Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com
First the snow, now the cold!
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
18z RGEM model 12-28-18
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z Euro Ensemble model (EPS) 12-28-18
Watching a potential snow event in the Sunday night-Tuesday morning time frame. Could be a band of accumulating snow somewhere over the Northland with amounts in the 2 to 6 inch range. Fine tuning this forecast through the weekend.
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z European Computer Model (ECMWF) 12-28-18
Overall the temperature pattern ahead features a few shots of arctic air along with a few shots of much warmer temperatures, a real roller coaster ahead!
…A major winter storm hit the Northland on Thursday, December 27, 2018…
***Daily snowfall and precipitation records broken for December 27***
Duluth, Minnesota
New snowfall record of 12.2 inches; Previous record was 4.8 inches set in 1923.
New precipitation record of 1.19 inches; Previous record was 0.42 inches set in 1923.
International Falls, Minnesota
New snowfall record of 6.0 inches; Previous record was 4.2 inches set in 1988.
New precipitation record of 0.51 inches; Previous record was 0.30 inches set in 1923.
***A top 5 wettest December 27 at the following locations***
Ashland, Wisconsin
2nd wettest December 27 on record with a precipitation total on Thursday of 0.69 inches. Wettest Dec 27 on record is 1.10 inches set in 1959.
Brainerd, Minnesota
2nd wettest December 27 on record with a precipitation total on Thursday of 0.43 inches. Wettest Dec 27 on record is 0.56 inches set in 1988.
Hibbing, Minnesota
2nd wettest December 27 on record with a precipitation total on Thursday of 0.47 inches. Wettest Dec 27 on record is 0.66 inches set in 1959.
…Climate Data for December 27…
Duluth, Minnesota
Tied for 4th highest minimum temperature on record for December 27 with a low on Thursday of 28 degrees. The record warm low temperature for December 27 is 34 degrees set in 1877, tied in 2003.
Hibbing, Minnesota
Tied for 4th highest minimum temperature on record for December 27 with a low on Thursday of 21 degrees. The record warm low temperature for December 27 is 35 degrees set in 2003.
Brainerd, Minnesota
Tied for 5th highest minimum temperature on record for December 27 with a low on Thursday of 23 degrees. The record warm low temperature for December 27 is 38 degrees set in 1959.
Snowfall totals for December 27-28, 2018
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
3 E Finland, MN: 24.0 inch
4 W Grand Marais, MN: 21.7 inch
7 N McGregor, MN: 19.2 inch
7 NNW Two Harbors, MN: 18.7 inch
6 E Island Lake, MN: 18.1 inch
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 15.3 inch
2 NW Duluth, MN: 14.1 inch
14 W Isabella, MN: 14.0 inch
11 N Nashwauk, MN: 13.7 inch
Libby, MN: 13.5 inch
Duluth Airport: 13.1 inch
Fort Ripley, MN: 13.0 inch
3 N Brainerd, MN: 12.8 inch
1 N Cloquet, MN: 12.5 inch
Keewatin, MN: 12.0 inch
7 SE Grand Rapids, MN: 12.0 inch
2 N Mahtowa, MN: 11.5 inch
3 E Orr, MN: 11.0 inch
Wrenshall, MN: 10.9 inch
3 ENE Wright, MN: 10.6 inch
1 WSW Maple, WI: 10.2 inch
3 ENE Holyoke, MN: 10.2 inch
3 NNE Lester Park, MN: 9.5 inch
4 SSE Herbster, WI: 9.5 inch
1 NW Kabetogama, MN: 9.0 inch
1 W Solon Springs, WI: 8.3 inch
2 NNW Gary New Duluth, MN: 8.0 inch
Dairyland, WI: 8.0 inch
Embarrass, MN: 7.8 inch
3 NNW Sandstone, MN: 7.0 inch
6 SW Webb Lake, WI: 6.8 inch
3 SW Bayfield, WI: 6.8 inch
Gile, WI: 6.8 inch
12 W Drummond, WI: 6.7 inch
7 ESE Superior, WI: 6.5 inch
International Falls, MN: 6.3 inch
3 WNW Superior, WI: 5.0 inch
Ashland, WI: 4.5 inch
Herbster, WI: 3.8 inch
1 SSW Grantsburg, WI: 2.8 inch
Note: Matching snowfall reports to my snowfall forecast for this storm, not the best, but not too bad I guess.
•A few locations that were in the 12-15″ zone ended up with higher snow amounts.
•Not too bad for far northern Minnesota, I had International Falls in the 6-8 range, they ended up with 6.5″ of snow.
•A few spots in the 8-12″ zone with higher totals, like McGregor which ended up with nearly 20″ of snow (19.2″)
•As for Duluth, I said the north part of the city had a chance to get 12-15″ of snow, and they did! South part of the city and for the city of Superior, overall I was a little too high on snow amounts for those spots, I forecasted 8-12″ of snow, but snow totals were in the 5-8″ range instead.
•Northwest Wisconsin, the far northwest portion of that area saw the highest snow totals, which is what I was forecasting. Lower snowfall totals for southern portions of northwest Wisconsin, and for the most part that did verify.
Note: There was a lot of Orographic enhancement to the snowfall along the North Shore as well as in the northern portion of the city of Duluth with the east wind coming off Lake Superior.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
First off — Thank you to the people who shared my weather posts over the last few days, and to the people who took the time to read my forecasts. Means a lot!
Now back to the weather — It’s cold! High pressure was over the northern Plains late this Friday afternoon with low pressure (Thursday’s winter storm) now over Quebec province. Cold air advection on N-NW winds occurred across the area today with Friday afternoon temperatures only in the single digits and teens. Skies did clear out, however, from NW-SE during the afternoon hours.
Tonight will be clear to partly cloudy and frigid with subzero lows likely for most of the area with lows ranging from around 5 below to 25 below.
Note: For Duluth, tonight’s forecasted temperatures are the coldest we’ve seen since earlier this month (Dec 6-7, lows of 1 F on both nights) And the first time below zero since over a month ago on November 20 (Low of -7 F)
Saturday is shaping up to be a nice looking day, albeit a cold one! Mostly sunny to partly sunny skies are expected with highs in the single digits and teens. Finally have enough snow out there for winter activities, but I think a few of us will be inside watching the College Football Playoff games later Saturday afternoon!
Looking ahead to our next potential snow event
A few flurries or snow showers are possible on Sunday across northern Minnesota, but a better chance for some accumulating snow comes Sunday night into Monday evening as low pressure drops SE out of the northern Plains while another low heads NE out of the southern Plains, doesn’t look like will get complete phasing to occur with this system, but the northern low combined with some possible F-GEN banding could lead to a swath of several inches of snow somewhere over the Northland during the Sunday night-Monday evening time frame. Wind direction could also become favorable on Monday for some lake enhanced snow near Lake Superior. Stay tuned!
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for December 29
High: 19
Low: 3
Sunrise Saturday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:28 PM CST
Tim
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