Storm tracks and potential impacts for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from the 3 storm tracks on map.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Thursday, January 31, 2019.
Note: Ice doesn’t move on the image below while clouds move.
Lake Superior ice coverage has increased to roughly 36% as of January 30th, this all thanks to the record breaking cold over the last few days. By the way, just one week ago today, ice coverage was at ~11%.
18z NAM-WRF model 1-31-19
A few lake effect flurries are possible Friday over the Arrowhead of Minnesota (Grand Marais area) as southerly winds develop. While an area of light snow or flurries passes east through far northern Minnesota during the late morning/afternoon hours. Note: This snow should stay north of Duluth.
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 1-31-19
Quite a turnaround in temperatures this weekend with highs on Sunday possibly in the 40s as far north as eastern Minnesota and central Wisconsin. It will be cooler farther north across northern Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin with highs mainly in the 20s which is right around normal for early February.
Should be noted that other computer models are cooler for Sunday with those 40s on the Euro solution (shown below) more like the 20s and 30s per other computer models.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 1-31-19
Temperature anomaly forecast through mid February (15th)
Orange and red colors represent above normal temperatures
Blue, green and purple colors represent below normal temperatures
Overall it looks like a colder than normal pattern for the Northland through the next 2 weeks. Temperatures will warm-up through the weekend, but this looks temporary as the cold air reloads over the western U.S. while spreading farther east mid to late next week.
12 Hour Wind Chill reports
Issued: 9:41 AM CST, Thursday, January 31, 2019
Grand Marais Airport: -59 F
2 WNW Palmers, MN: -54 F
3 W Clam Lake, MN: -53 F
Grand Rapids, MN: -53 F
2 NNW Cotton, MN: -53 F
2 S Chisholm, MN: -53 F
Brainerd, MN: -52 F
Cloquet, MN: -52 F
Ashland, WI: -51 F
Duluth Airport: -51 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: -50 F
International Falls, MN: -50 F
2 SW Proctor, MN: -50 F
Two Harbors, MN: -49 F
Washburn, WI: -49 F
Cook, MN: -48 F
1 W Isabella, MN: -48 F
7 WNW Minong, WI: -48 F
Moose Lake, MN: -48 F
Superior Airport: -48 F
Walker, MN: -48 F
Glidden, WI: -46 F
Orr, MN: -45 F
Bruno, MN: -45 F
Cass Lake, MN: -44 F
Hayward, WI: -42 F
Aitkin, MN: -40 F
24 Hour Low Temperature Reports
Issued: 9:40 AM CST, Thursday, January 31, 2019
Cotton, MN: -56 F
Kabetogama, MN: -50 F
2 S Brimson, MN: -47 F
3 N Butternut, WI: -47 F
2 E Celina, MN: -47 F
2 NNE Bigfork, MN: -46 F
1 S Hill City, MN: -45 F
International Falls, MN: -45 F
Northome, MN: -45 F
Cass Lake, MN: -44 F
4 N Floodwood, MN: -44 F
Brainerd, MN: -43 F
Crane Lake, MN: -42 F
Embarrass, MN: -42 F
Grand Rapids, MN: -41 F
2 SW Moose Lake, MN: -41 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: -40 F
3 WNW Twig, MN: -40 F
3 E Wright, MN: -40 F
3 W Clam Lake, WI: -39 F
Bruno, MN: -39 F
Aitkin, MN: -38 F
Cook, MN: -38 F
Ely, MN: -38 F
Gordon, WI: -38 F
Barnes, WI: -37 F
4 SSE South Range, WI: -37 F
Hinckley, MN: -36 F
Moose Lake, MN: -36 F
Silver Bay, MN: -35 F
Cloquet, MN: -35 F
3 NNE Hermantown, MN: -33 F
Two Harbors, MN: -33 F
1 ESE Esko, MN: -32 F
Duluth Airport: -31 F
Hayward, WI: -31 F
Superior Airport: -30 F
Washburn, WI: -30 F
Grand Marais Airport: -29 F
Duluth Harbor: -27 F
…Climate Data for January 30, 2019…
New daily record cold maximum temperature set for January 30 with a high on Wednesday of -14 degrees. The previous record coldest high temp was -11 degrees set in 1887.
5th lowest minimum temperature on record for January 30 with a low on Wednesday of -30 degrees. The record low for January 30 is -35 degrees set in 1994.
International Falls, Minnesota
New daily record cold maximum temperature set for January 30 with a high on Wednesday of -19 degrees. The previous record coldest high temp was -14 degrees set in 1909.
Record low temperature was tied for January 30 with a low on Wednesday of -40 degrees. This ties the record low for January 30 last set in 1950, and before that in 1909.
New daily record cold maximum temperature set for January 30 with a high on Wednesday of -9 degrees. The previous record coldest high temp was -4 degrees set in 1918.
4th lowest minimum temperature on record for January 30 with a low on Wednesday of -23 degrees. The record low for January 30 is -35 degrees set in 1950.
New daily record cold maximum temperature set for January 30 with a high on Wednesday of -16 degrees. The previous record coldest high temp was -12 degrees set in 1996.
4th lowest minimum temperature on record for January 30 with a low on Wednesday of -34 degrees. The record low for January 30 is -40 degrees set in 1996.
New daily record cold maximum temperature set for January 30 with a high on Wednesday of -17 degrees. The previous record coldest high temp was -11 degrees set in 1996.
New daily record low temperature set for January 30 with a low on Wednesday of -34 degrees. The previous record low temperature for January 30 was -33 degrees last set in 1951, prior to that in 1950.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
The arctic airmass is starting to retreat as evidence by the airmass and temps over our area today. 500mb heights have climbed to around 528 Decameters this afternoon per RAP model analysis with 850mb temperatures of around -20C. With such a cold start to the day, temperatures this afternoon were still on the cold side, but were roughly +10 degrees warmer compared to Wednesday’s record setting cold! Highs today were mainly in the single digits below zero.
Still very cold tonight but not as extreme as it has been. Will have some mid and high level clouds passing through the area tonight as warm air advection continues. Lows tonight will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero.
A warm front and area of low pressure approaches from the northern Plains on Friday with continued warm air advection ahead of this system. 850mb temperatures Friday morning ranging from around -10 to -18C, warming to around +5 to -3C from SW-NE by Friday evening, remember just on Tuesday we had 850mb temps of -30 to -40C, so this is quite an impressive turnaround!
Unfortunately or fortunately depending on your point of view, the warmer temps aloft won’t be fully mixed down to the surface, if they were we’d be in the 30s and 40s on Friday, instead we’re looking at highs ranging from the upper single digits to the teens under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. Note: There could be a little bit of snow in far northern Minnesota late morning and afternoon with accumulations of an inch or less.
This weekend could feature some patchy freezing drizzle or flurries at times as some moisture lifts north into the upper Midwest, while easterly winds develop near Lake Superior. Doesn’t look like there would be any major travel impacts, however, through Sunday afternoon as whatever precipitation falls would be spotty and light.
The bigger story could be the system for Sunday night into Monday. Low pressure is forecast to move into the western High Plains late this weekend, then track northeast or east-northeast from there. Still plenty of model differences showing up on the 12z guidance from Thursday with a few of the models much farther north and warmer, while others are farther south and colder. The GFS, GFSFV3, and its ensemble is a colder/southern solution, producing mostly snow or a wintry mix across the Northland while the Euro, Canadian and German-Icon models have a farther north storm track and are warmer, producing more of a wintry mix which could include some freezing rain and ice accumulations. It does look like this system would move through quickly if it does impact the Northland, with the heaviest precipitation from late Sunday night through early Monday afternoon.
Another system, more of an inverted trough setup could affect the area for the middle of next week, this looks like a colder setup with snow being the main precip-type should this system affect the Northland.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 1
Sunrise Friday: 7:33 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 5:12 PM CST