Winter weather headlines are in effect Saturday for southern Minnesota and parts of South Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois. This system with its snow and rain will remain south of the Northland, but if you have travel plans to southern Minnesota on Saturday be alert for changing weather and road conditions with some snow/slush accumulation likely in some parts of southern Minnesota.
Winter storm warning (pink)
Winter weather advisory (purple)
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Friday, April 26, 2019.
Saturday’s snow and rain maker is currently moving through the northern/central Rockies and is eastbound!
18z NAM-WRF model 4-26-19
Radar forecast valid from 1 AM to 7 PM Saturday. A quick hitting storm on the way in southern Minnesota with rain developing late tonight, rain changes to snow Saturday morning with heavy snowfall rates possible for a few hours Saturday especially in far southern Minnesota or along the Minnesota-Iowa state line. Precipitation ends from W-E Saturday afternoon.
National Weather Service snowfall forecast for Saturday, April 27.
A tight snowfall gradient is likely, ranging from less than an inch in the southern Twin Cities Metro area to possibly a half-foot of snow in extreme southern Minnesota (near Interstate 90)
12z European ensemble model 4-26-19
•Average date for last 1.0 inch snowfall in Duluth is April 9
•Average date for last 0.1 inch snowfall in Duluth is April 23
Note: If we do end up getting an inch of snow in Duluth Sunday night-Monday morning (April 28) it would be close to 3 weeks later than normal for when we typically see our last one inch snowfall of the season.
12z European ensemble model 4-26-19
Temperature anomaly forecast valid through May 11, 2019.
The main takeaway from the forecast below is that cooler than normal temperatures will be the norm in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through about the first 2 weeks of May, that’s not saying there won’t be a few warmer days mixed in, but for the most part temperatures look to average below normal through May 11.
Blue, green and purple colors=Below normal temperatures
Orange and red colors=Above normal temperatures
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
April 14-20, 2019
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
4/14: 42 F/-7 degrees below normal
4/15: 44 F/-5 degrees below normal
4/16: 62 F/+12 degrees above normal
4/17: 51 F/+1 degree above normal
4/18: 52 F/+1 degree above normal
4/19: 63 F/+12 degrees above normal
4/20: 74 F/+22 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
4/14: 16 F/-13 degrees below normal
4/15: 21 F/-9 degrees below normal
4/16: 31 F/+1 degree above normal
4/17: 38 F/+7 degrees above normal
4/18: 37 F/+6 degrees above normal
4/19: 26 F/-6 degrees below normal
4/20: 45 F/+13 degrees above normal
Average temperature for the week of April 14: 43.0 degrees (+2.6 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 0.38 inches
Normal: 0.59 inches
Departure: -0.21 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of April 14, 2019
Temperature: 41.9 degrees
Departure: -2.6 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.67 inches
Departure: +0.07 inches above normal
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A breezy and cooler day compared to how mild it’s been lately, but highs today weren’t bad for late April with temperatures topping out in the upper 40s to middle 50s which is near to a few degrees cooler than average for April 26. Scattered clouds were seen on Goes-16 satellite imagery today passing NW-SE across north-central Minnesota otherwise skies were mainly sunny today. Winds were out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy with lows ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30s. Northwesterly winds will shift to the north/east overnight.
Saturday: Low pressure tracks east/southeast out of the Western High Plains and will remain well south of our area. Will have dry weather in the Northland Saturday under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 40s to middle 50s, similar to the highs we saw on Friday, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. North or east winds are expected at 5 to 15 mph.
Most of the day Sunday looks dry with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Chances for snow or rain look to increase across the area Sunday evening with precipitation lingering overnight into Monday morning. Low pressure moving east out of the Northern Plains will create enough lift in the atmosphere to produce at least some precipitation later Sunday. Although temps will be mild Sunday, evaporative cooling will occur Sunday evening with temps aloft cold enough for frozen precipitation, so once the near surface temps become cold enough, precipitation will fall as snow.
Note: Some parts of the Northland could see a half inch to 2 inches of slushy snow late Sunday night/Monday morning.
Some more rain or snow is possible next Wednesday-Thursday, May 1-2.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Mostly clear this evening. Partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Low 30 to 35. Wind north to northwest 10 to 20 mph becoming northeast.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 48 to 53. Wind northeast 5 to 15 mph becoming north to northwest.
.Sunday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east 10 to 15 mph.
.Sunday night… Rain and snow. Snowfall accumulations of up to an inch possible. Low 31 to 34. Wind east 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Light rain and snow. Little additional snow accumulation expected. Mostly cloudy. Cool. High 35 to 40. Wind northeast 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for April 27
Sunrise for April 27: 6:00 AM CDT
Sunset for April 27: 8:13 PM CDT