12z European computer model 5-26-19
•Looking at two areas of rain through Tuesday morning, the computer models agree on that, but they don’t agree on how far north the southern area of rain will reach.
•The European model is the farthest south, while the NAM guidance is farther north bringing rain to Duluth by Monday afternoon. The RGEM, RAP and HRRR models side with the NAM, while the German-Icon and GFS models agree with the Euro keeping the rain south and north of Duluth tonight and Monday. I’m leaning toward the Euro guidance with my forecast with only a few showers or patchy drizzle possible at times in Duluth through Monday, but if the other models are correct, a steadier rain would affect Duluth on Monday.
•One area of rain will affect parts of northern Minnesota tonight into Monday morning with rainfall totals in the 0.10 to 0.30 inch range.
•The second area of rain (heavier amounts) affects much of southern Minnesota and central/southern Wisconsin through Tuesday morning with rain totals in those areas of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts.
•Not much rain is expected between the northern and southern areas of rain through Tuesday morning.
21z HRRR model, radar forecast from 7 PM Sunday evening to 7 AM Monday.
Scattered showers tonight mainly over northern Minnesota while a larger area of rain lifts northeast into the southern half of Minnesota overnight/early Monday morning.
There was quite a difference in weather conditions across the Northland today. Temperatures this Sunday afternoon were only in the mid 40s to low 50s in far northern Minnesota where overcast skies along with some light rain and drizzle were found, while southern portions of the Northland saw more sun and warmer temps, ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s today.
Note: High of 50 degrees at International Falls today is the 3rd coldest high on record for May 26. The record cold high is 45 degrees set on May 26, 1970.
One of the cooler things radar can pick up are these ‘backdoor’ cold fronts, in this case the one that surged southwest down Lake Superior today.
At 3:20 PM cold front was located from near Castle Danger to Cornucopia.
Around 4:20 PM cold front was located from near French River to southwest of Port Wing.
4:50 PM, backdoor cold front passes through Duluth and Superior.
Note: East winds gusting 20 to 35 mph with a good 20 degree temperature drop occurred as this cold front moved through late this Sunday afternoon.
5:50 PM, cold front continuing to surge west/southwest and extended from just east of Shaw to Cloquet to Holyoke and Chaffey.
Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, May 27.
Lows tonight ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Strong northeast winds near Lake Superior with gusts 20 to 30 mph.
High temperature forecast for Memorial Day (Monday) May 27.
A cool Memorial Day ahead with highs ranging from around 40 degrees near Lake Superior to the mid 40s to mid 50s over the rest of the Northland.
Temperature departure map for the week of May 19, 2019. Below average temps in the Northland last week.
Precipitation departure map for the week of May 19, 2019. Precipitation totals were above average last week in most of the Northland (green and blue colors on map) Yellow shaded areas represent near to below average precip totals.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
May 19-25, 2019
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
5/19: 42 F/-21 degrees below normal
5/20: 65 F/+1 degree above normal
5/21: 64 F/Normal
5/22: 49 F/-15 degrees below normal
5/23: 57 F/-7 degrees below normal
5/24: 50 F/-15 degrees below normal
5/25: 68 F/+3 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
5/19: 35 F/-7 degrees below normal
5/20: 36 F/-6 degrees below normal
5/21: 38 F/-4 degrees below normal
5/22: 43 F/+1 degree above normal
5/23: 44 F/+1 degree above normal
5/24: 44 F/+1 degree above normal
5/25: 44 F/+1 degree above normal
Average temperature for the week of May 19: 48.5 degrees (-4.7 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 1.64 inches
Normal: 0.74 inches
Departure: +0.90 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of May 19
Temperature: 50.8 degrees
Departure: -7.3 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 1.85 inches
Departure: +1.08 inches above normal
Note: Spring 2019 is running ~1.0 degree colder compared to last spring in Minnesota through May 25 while the state has seen 3″+ more precipitation this spring compared to last spring through May 25. See stats below.
Meteorological spring Climate Stats for Minnesota (thru May 25)
Note: Meteorological spring is the period from March 1 to May 31.
Average temperature (thru May 25) 37.7 degrees
Departure: -4.0 degrees below normal
Total precipitation (thru May 25) 9.36 inches
Departure: +2.40 inches above normal
Average temperature (thru May 25) 38.8 degrees
Departure: -2.9 degrees below normal
Total precipitation (thru May 25) 6.07 inches
Departure: -0.75 inches below normal
-A very stormy stretch in the U.S.; Over the past 10 days (May 16 to May 25) 1845 total severe reports with 231 reported tornadoes. Source: Twitter; @MJVentrice
-Duluth, Minnesota hit 70 degrees today, May 26, this is the third time so far this month with a high of at least 70 degrees. Average number of 70 degree days in May is 6 days. Last May had 17 days with a high temp of 70 degrees or warmer.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Windy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible late. Low 38 to 43. Wind east 15 to 30 mph.
.Monday… Windy. Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle, few showers possible. High 43 to 48. Wind east 15 to 30 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for May 27
May 27 Sunrise: 5:22 AM CDT
May 27 Sunset: 8:50 PM CDT