Warm and humid through the weekend with isolated t-storms

About the only difference in Friday’s weather compared to Thursday’s weather is that the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms shifts farther south compared to today.

Spirit Valley Days in West Duluth continue on Friday with a street dance and live music Friday evening. There could be some isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening with lightning and heavy downpours, otherwise it looks warm on Friday with many dry hours, highs in the 80s, cooling into the 70s Friday evening.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

18z NAM-WRF model radar forecast valid from 7 PM Thursday to 10 PM Friday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

Many dry hours through Friday evening, but there will be a few storms at times which will affect some parts of the area. Torrential downpours are possible if you get hit by one of these storms.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Thursday afternoon, August 1, 2019 showing the thunderstorms which have been erupting in isolated fashion this afternoon across extreme northern Minnesota. Northwest winds aloft are pushing the anvil (high level clouds) to the southeast.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu

Around 0.15 inches of rain reported today at International Falls and Grand Marais.

Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, August 2.

Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Friday, August 2.

Long range computer models continue to show a pattern change as we get into the second week of August with a cooler weather pattern setting up.

Normal temperatures in the Northland from August 6 through 16 range from the mid to upper 70s for highs and low to mid 50s for lows. Could be looking at daytime highs in the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s if this pattern change occurs, could also be talking about a patchy frost threat at some point by mid August.

Shown below is the temperature anomaly forecast valid from August 6 through August 16 per 12z European ensemble model. Note: Blue and green colors on the map indicate below normal temperatures.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

…Weather Summary…

It’s feeling a little more humid today and expect a muggier feel for the next few days as dew points remain in the 60s through Sunday.

Upper level troughs were found across the Pacific northwest and eastern U.S. today with an upper level ridge across the central/southern Plains. The upper Midwest remains in northwest flow aloft as we sit north of the upper level ridge.

A cold front will sag south into the Northland through Saturday morning, this front will then get shoved back north as a warm front by Saturday night.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Friday night due to some weak lift provided by the cold front along with some instability with CAPE of 1000 to around 2000 J/kg. Chances for severe weather remain quite low however with weak winds aloft, weak wind shear and poor mid level lapse rates. Outside of the isolated rains, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Lows tonight ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s so a warmer night compared to the last few nights around here. Highs Friday will mainly be in the 80s.

Still can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm Saturday, but there should be many dry hours. Highs Saturday in the 80s except for cooler temps around Lake Superior due to a possible lake breeze.

Southwest winds strengthen Sunday with widespread 80s for daytime highs.

Top 3 warmest Julys on record at Duluth, Minn

  • 71.9 degrees (2012 and 2006)
  • 71.7 degrees (1881)
  • 71.1 degrees (2019)

Number of 80 degree days in July at Duluth, Minn

  • Top 3
  • 25 days (2012)
  • 24 days (1988)
  • 23 days (2019 and 2006)

Number of days in July with a low of 60 degrees or warmer at Duluth, Minn

  • Top 4
  • 24 days (1921)
  • 22 days (2012)
  • 21 days (1878)
  • 20 days (2019)

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