Cooler weather the next few days; mainly dry through Saturday; rain chances increase Sunday-Monday

A refreshing airmass moving into the Northland the next few days. Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov

Source: 18z GFS model; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

I’m keeping an eye on weekend rain chances, although model runs over the last 12 hours have been trending toward a later arrival time for rain compared to how it looked on Monday. It now looks like will be mostly dry in Duluth Friday, Saturday and possibly even into Sunday morning before rain chances increase Sunday afternoon into Monday in the Duluth-Superior area.

At the moment it looks like the greatest chance for some rain during the Friday night-Sunday morning time frame would be in western-northern portions of Minnesota, this would include International Falls, Bigfork and Walker, and points west. Note: This later arrival time to the rain would also benefit the Ogilvie Raceway for the Harvest Cup Friday and Saturday with the weather now looking mainly dry in that area until Sunday, of course the timing of rain may still fluctuate a bit in coming days so stay tuned.

Local Storm Reports for August 20, 2019

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • 6:56 AM: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) Numerous small trees and branches were reported down in Brainerd.
  • 6:55 AM: HAIL. 0.25 inch. 1 NNW Baxter, MN (Crow Wing County)
  • 6:49 AM: LIGHTNING. Jenkins, MN (Crow Wing County) A house was struck by a positive stroke of lightning which caused a fire that started in the basement. Fire crews were on the scene for about 3 hours.
  • 6:44 AM: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County) Small trees and branches were reported down in Nisswa.
  • 5:13 AM: THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST. 54 mph. 1 S International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)

Rainfall Reports for August 20, 2019

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

  • International Falls, MN: 1.05″
  • Littlefork, MN: 0.85″
  • Brainerd, MN: 0.68″
  • Grand Portage, MN: 0.52″
  • Orr, MN: 0.43″
  • Ely, MN: 0.37″
  • Isabella, MN: 0.34″
  • Pine River, MN: 0.30″
  • Washburn, WI: 0.28″
  • Hayward, WI: 0.28″
  • Grand Marais, MN: 0.26″
  • Two Harbors, MN: 0.26″
  • Barnes, WI: 0.25″
  • Silver Bay, MN: 0.24″
  • Minong, WI: 0.24″
  • Solon Springs, WI: 0.23″
  • Ashland, WI: 0.23″
  • Siren, WI: 0.22″
  • Clam Lake, WI: 0.19″
  • Moose Lake, MN: 0.18″
  • Duluth, MN (Airport) 0.17″
  • Saginaw, MN: 0.16″
  • Walker, MN: 0.16″
  • Superior, WI (Airport) 0.15″
  • Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: 0.15″
  • Hill City, MN: 0.11″
  • Grand Rapids, MN: 0.08″

Quite an impressive satellite loop showing the two thunderstorm clusters or Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) from Tuesday morning, August 20, 2019. Source: https://weather.cod.edu

Cluster number one impacted northern and central Minnesota while cluster number two impacted Iowa, Illinois and Indiana today. Both of these MCSs formed to the east/northeast of an elevated mixed layer which was in place across the Western High Plains.

Cool spot so far this month has been across the Northern Plains where average temperatures have been running 2 to nearly 4 degrees below normal (white circled area on the map below) Source: https://sercc.com/

Average temp (Aug 1-19, 2019) departure from normal

  • Fargo, ND: 68.7 degrees (-1.8 degrees below normal)
  • Bismarck, ND: 68.8 degrees (-2.2 degrees below normal)
  • Rapid City, SD: 69.0 degrees (-3.9 degrees below normal)

Note: The average temperature so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota 68.7 degrees (+3.3 degrees above normal thru the 19th)

Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning, August 21. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Wednesday, August 21

…Weather Summary…

A rather nice stretch of weather on the way, although the nights will be a little cool, especially away from Lake Superior. Fall is coming, and soon will be talking frost, and eventually snow!

Cold front which brought the rain and thunderstorms to the area earlier today has exited to the south/east.

High pressure is building into the upper Midwest with the center of that high over southern Saskatchewan as of late this Tuesday afternoon, this high will slide into the Northern Plains Wednesday, and into the upper Midwest Thursday.

Mainly dry weather is expected in our area through the day Friday, the only fly in the ointment is the potential of a few lake induced showers or drizzle along the North Shore of Lake Superior later this week as winds shift to the east. 850mb temperatures as low as +5C with water temps of around +15C might be enough to produce a few lake effect showers along the North Shore late Thursday and possibly on Friday as well.

Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with highs Wednesday in the mid 60s to mid 70s (coolest temps in northern Minnesota) It will be breezy through Wednesday with northwest winds gusting 15 to around 25 mph.

Far West Days 2019 forecast for Duluth

Friday (Aug. 23) Dry, high 65 to 70. East wind.

Saturday (Aug. 24) Dry, high 70 to 75. South to southeast wind.

Sunday (Aug. 25) Rain possible, especially in the afternoon. High 70 to 75. South to southeast wind.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Breezy and cooler. Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday… Breezy and cooler. Partly to mostly sunny. High 69 to 74. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Wind northeast 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for August 21

  • High 74
  • Low 54
  • Sunrise Wednesday 6:14 AM CDT
  • Sunset Wednesday 8:09 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

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