Cooler lake wind on the way for Friday, still mild inland. Scattered showers/t-storms Friday into Saturday

Some more rain is on the way! Isolated to widely scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible in parts of the Northland on Friday with a better chance for scattered showers or thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Note: The greatest rainfall amounts with this next system are forecast to be over northwest Minnesota into parts of North Dakota where 1 to 2 inches or more of rain are possible by Sunday morning.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com

Record warmth in the Northland for the second day in a row — See list below.

Duluth, Minnesota

Record warm low temperature set for September 18th with a low of 65 degrees. The previous record warm low temperature was 64 degrees set on September 18th, 1985.

International Falls, Minnesota

Record warm low temperature set for September 18th with a low of 65 degrees. The previous record warm low temperature was 63 degrees set on September 18th, 1989.

Ashland, Wisconsin

Record warm low temperature set for September 18th with a low of 68 degrees. The previous record warm low temperature was 64 degrees set on September 18th, 2007.

Advertisements

A strong upper level trough is over the Rockies today, this system will make its way into the Northland this weekend, although the greatest forcing and main portion of the trough is forecast to lift north into Canada which should limit the amount of rain that we get in our area this weekend.

Source: Goes-16 water vapor satellite imagery; https://weather.cod.edu

Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, September 20. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Friday, September 20.

Little change in the overall weather pattern next week. Still looks like will have a southwest 500mb flow across the upper Midwest between a trough to the west and a ridge to the south/east. What this means for the Northland is more rain at times next week.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 9.19.19; https://weathermodels.com

Here’s what the temperature anomaly forecast looks like for next week based on the pattern shown above per Euro ensemble model.

Looking out even farther down the road still shows no real change in the pattern from late September into the first few days of October per Euro ensemble model.

Advertisements

…Weather Summary…

Seeing quite a temperature gradient in the Northland today with afternoon temps in the mid to upper 60s in far northern Minnesota to the upper 70s to lower 80s in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Cold front which moved through the area on Wednesday is now over southern Minnesota late this afternoon, this boundary will turn into a warm front while it lifts north through Friday.

Warm air and moisture advection will increase across the Northland on Friday as the warm front builds north. Precipitable water (PWATS) of around 0.60-0.90″ during the morning are forecast to increase to around 1.00-1.70″ by Friday evening.

Elevated instability will also be on the increase Friday with CAPE of 1500 to around 3000 J/kg possible by Friday night. It’s unlikely that will see widespread showers and thunderstorms in the Northland on Friday due to only weak forcing associated with the warm front, but at least a few showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday into Friday night due to the warm air/moisture advection as well as a strong S-SW low level jet which will increase to around 50 knots Friday night. If storms develop they could contain gusty winds and hail along with torrential downpours.

Lows tonight will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with highs Friday in the 50s near Lake Superior and in the 70s elsewhere. Winds will be shifting to the east-southeast at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts on Friday.

Low pressure will lift northeast out of the Northern Plains on Saturday while a cold front swings SW-NE through the Northland later in the day. Southerly winds ahead of this system will help keep a muggy and unstable airmass over the Northland on Saturday. Should get enough lift to occur with the approaching cold front to set off scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, and prior to this we could see some showers, drizzle and isolated thunderstorms in the morning and midday hours of Saturday. Highs Saturday are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s with dew points in the 60s.

Sunday looks cooler as will be on the backside of low pressure which will be moving across Ontario. Highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s with some lingering showers possible.

Advertisements

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Wind west around 10 mph becoming east 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday… Breezy and cooler. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible mainly in the afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog possible. High 63 to 68, cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Fog, drizzle, occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms possible. High 66 to 71. Wind south to southeast 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

  • High 63
  • Low 44
  • Sunrise Friday 6:53 AM CDT
  • Sunset Friday 7:11 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Leave a Reply