Keeping an eye on a late week storm which looks to bring more rain to the Northland later this week while a major winter storm is possible in parts of the Dakotas. But first, nice fall weather continues Tuesday and Wednesday, enjoy!
Note: Still waiting on the first freeze in Duluth (temperature of 32 F or colder) The average date for first freeze is September 30. The lowest temperature in Duluth so far this fall was on September 28 with a low of 37 degrees. The last time Duluth had a temperature of 32 F or lower was on May 7 (29 degrees)
Goes-16 visible satellite imagery from today sure looks beautiful! Hardly any clouds in the sky this afternoon from the Dakotas to the shores of Lake Superior, nice to see for a change. Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Update on the late week storm
Low pressure is forecast to be over the Central Plains Thursday with the low taking a track toward the north or possibly northeast this weekend. As the low lifts into the upper Midwest this weekend it is expected to slow down or even become stationary for a time.
***Potential Impacts for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from October 10-13***
1) More rain
2) Some wind
3) Little bit of snow or mixed precipitation
*Rain is forecast to move into the Northland Wednesday night with rainy weather at times Thursday into Friday.
*Some precipitation should continue to fall this weekend, and eventually will see enough cold air push in from the southwest causing rain to mix with snow, and in some parts of the Northland a changeover from rain to snow is possible this weekend.
Note: I’m not expecting a major winter storm anywhere in the Northland this weekend based on the current storm track/setup per model guidance, but some parts of the Northland may see a light accumulation of snow over the weekend.
Southerly winds Thursday and Friday will shift to the north/west this weekend. The strongest winds should remain west of our area based on the current storm track (gusts 25-45 mph) while here in the Northland wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph are possible late this week into the weekend.
A significant snowstorm is possible late this week and weekend in parts of the Northern Plains with a half-foot or more of snow possible along with strong winds and cold temperatures.
A powerful upper level low dives SE through the Rockies the next few days before reaching the Western High Plains on Friday, and then the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes region this weekend, this system looks quite anomalous in terms of its strength and in the amount of snow that may fall later this week across parts of the Northern Plains. One to watch!
Source: 12z European model 10.7.19; https://www.pivotalweather.com
Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, October 8. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov
High temperature forecast for Tuesday, October 8
…Weather Summary…
High pressure covered the Central Plains today which gave the Northland a mainly sunny day, but more importantly a day without a drop of rain! Highs today were in the mid 50s to low 60s which is near to a couple degrees warmer than normal for October 7th. Gentle breezes out of the west or southwest at 5 to 15 mph made today a near perfect fall day around here.
Mainly clear skies tonight with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Southerly winds around 10 mph.
The pleasant fall weather continues Tuesday under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 60s with south winds 10 to 20 mph. (Normal highs on October 8th are in the middle 50s)
Increasing cloudiness Wednesday, but still mild with highs in the 60s, although it will be cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior due to the south wind coming off the lake.
Low level moisture will gradually increase later this week as a slow moving storm heads toward the upper Midwest. Southerly flow ahead of the low and trough will pull richer low level moisture northward into our area by Wednesday night, and as forcing increases in response to the low, cold front and trough moving closer to the upper Midwest will see areas of rain break out, this should begin to happen Wednesday night which will be followed by periods of rain Thursday into Friday, areas of fog and drizzle will probably develop as well later this week.
Note: I’m pretty confident the Northland will be on the warm side of this system through Friday meaning precipitation that falls in our area later this week will be in the form of rain.
Eventually will see the colder air push up from the south/west but probably not until Friday night or perhaps not until Saturday. 850mb temperatures falling to around -5C over the weekend with surface temps in the mid 30s to mid 40s for Saturday and Sunday, so precipitation that falls this weekend will likely be in the form of a rain/snow mix, possibly turning over to snow at times in some parts of the Northland, but at the moment it doesn’t look like there’d be much snow accumulation in our area this weekend.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 43 to 48. Wind becoming south around 10 mph.
.Tuesday… Mostly sunny. High 63 to 68. Wind south 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 63 to 68. Wind south 10 to 20 mph.
- Sunrise Tuesday 7:17 AM CDT
- Sunset Tuesday 6:35 PM CDT
Thanks for reading!
