A powerful and potentially historic October winter storm will continue to impact the Northern Plains through Saturday with heavy snow, powerful winds and blizzard conditions. Snowfall totals in parts of North Dakota could reach 2 to 3 feet by Saturday!
If you have family or friends that live in the Dakotas here are some links to local National Weather Service Offices in that area for up to date information regarding this potentially dangerous and record setting winter storm.
Grand Forks: https://www.weather.gov/fgf/
Bismarck: https://www.weather.gov/bis/
Aberdeen: https://www.weather.gov/abr/
Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/
Here’s my snowfall forecast for the Northland for this weekend.
Most of the area should only see a light coating of snow mainly on grassy surfaces with amounts of around a half-inch, but a few locations could get up to 2 inches of snow, while the Arrowhead and far western portions of the Northland have potential to see up to a half-foot of snow from Friday night through Sunday morning.
Note: Locations close to Lake Superior probably won’t see any snow accumulation this weekend, with more of a rain/snow mix expected.
The cold air continues to make eastward progress today with the leading edge of it reaching into far western Minnesota. Note: Much colder temperatures will arrive in the Northland on Friday. Source: https://weather.us
Temperatures this Thursday afternoon range from the lower 70s in parts of southern Wisconsin to the middle 50s in central Minnesota to the middle 30s in western Minnesota. Snow is falling behind the cold front with rain ahead of the front. Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Powerful October storm impacting the Northern Plains with heavy snow and blizzard conditions along with areas of mixed precipitation, while severe weather is occurring farther south across eastern Oklahoma. Source: https://weather.cod.edu
500mb low will undergo rapid intensification on Friday as it moves northeast out of eastern South Dakota. 500mb geopotential heights are forecast to drop from around 537 decameters to around 522 decameters by Friday evening. Will also see the H5 low become nearly stationary as it sits and spins across northern Minnesota during most of this weekend before it exits off to the east Sunday night.
Source: 18z Nam model; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
This is absolutely incredible! Watch the progression of the October cold wave as it sweeps south/east through Saturday. Source: 18z 3km Nam model; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
Radar loop from Thursday, October 10, 2019 (ending at 4:45 PM)
Blue: Snow
Green: Rain
Pink: Wintry mix
Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, October 11. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov
High temperature forecast for Friday, October 11. Note: Temperatures shown on the map below will likely occur early in the day with falling temperatures expected by the afternoon.
…Weather Summary…
Some rain tonight followed by much colder temperatures Friday and through the weekend with the season’s first snow likely in most of the Northland.
Our area will continue to be on the ‘warm’ side of a powerhouse storm tonight with low pressure tracking from northwest Missouri to northwest Minnesota by Friday morning. A strong cold front will swing NE across the Northland Friday morning which will usher in a much colder airmass.
Occasional rain and drizzle tonight with some fog as well. Isolated thunderstorms could develop during the night as elevated CAPE increases to a few hundred J/kg.
Areas of drizzle and rain showers are expected Friday with some fog especially along the North Shore. Temperatures will be trending colder through the day from SW-NE so we should begin to see some snow or sleet mix in with the rain especially across western and southern portions of the Northland.
Snow showers and mixed showers are likely Saturday and Sunday as a strong surface and upper level low remains nearly stationary across the Northland.
There likely will be some heavier bursts of snow over the weekend, but overall the snow that falls should be on the light side.
Temps aloft will certainly be favorable for snow this weekend with 850mb temps around -5 to -8C and 925mb temps of 0 to -2C.
Temperatures
Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s, highs Friday will occur early in the day, ranging from the 40s to around 60 degrees, temps will fall into the 30s over most areas by Friday afternoon. Highs Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the 30s to lower 40s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Winds
East to southeast tonight 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph near Lake Superior. Winds shift to the south/southwest Friday at 15 to 30 mph.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Breezy. Occasional rain. Drizzle and fog. Isolated thunderstorms possible late. Low 45 to 50. Wind east to southeast 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Windy and turning colder. Occasional showers and drizzle. High 55 to 60 early with temperatures falling to 35 to 40. Wind becoming south to southwest 15 to 30 mph.
.Saturday… Breezy. Occasional snow showers inland and mixed rain and snow showers near Lake Superior. High 36 to 41. Wind south 15 to 25 mph.
Normal temperatures for October 11
- High 54
- Low 36
- Sunrise Friday 7:21 AM CDT
- Sunset Friday 6:29 PM CDT
Thanks for reading!
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