Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for this weekend’s winter storm.
*15 to 25 inches of snow near Lake Superior including for Two Harbors, Duluth, Superior, Solon Springs, Port Wing, Bayfield and Ashland.
*10 to 15 inches of snow for Silver Bay, Floodwood, Hill City, Brainerd, Aitkin, Moose Lake, Sandstone, Hinckley, Siren, Shell Lake and Hayward.
*6 to 10 inches of snow for Walker, Grand Rapids, Bigfork, Hibbing and Tofte.
*3 to 6 inches of snow for Orr, Ely and Grand Marais.
*1 to 3 inches of snow along the Borderland including International Falls.
Note: About the only thing I’m seeing in model data that could decrease snow amounts by a few inches would be if mixed precipitation (ice) develops for a few hours on Saturday, otherwise the computer models have changed very little over the last few days for this storm.
Great info. posted by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota.
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
Note: The Experimental Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) puts this weekend’s storm into the Moderate to Major impacts risk categories with Extreme impacts for some areas near Lake Superior. Link to the WSSI – https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wssi.php
| NWS Duluth weather alerts map as of 4:27 PM Friday Red – Blizzard Warning Pink – Winter Storm Warning Purple – Winter Weather Advisory | |
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
Here’s a zoomed in look at the Blizzard Warning.
Note: Travel will become very difficult to impossible Saturday afternoon and Saturday night in the Twin Ports and along the North Shore including Highway 61.
| A wider view of all the weather alerts that are in effect. Red – Blizzard Warning Pink – Winter Storm Warning Purple – Winter Weather Advisory | |
Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/
| Links to Road Conditions Minnesota: https://lb.511mn.org/ Wisconsin: https://511wi.gov/ Power Outage Maps Minnesota Power: https://www.mnpower.com/OutageCenter/OutageMap Lake Country Power: http://outage.lcp.coop/#viewer-menu-parent | |
The combination of strong ENE winds, wave heights building to 10 feet or more along with high lake levels could lead to lakeshore flooding, beach and shoreline erosion from Saturday afternoon through Sunday near Lake Superior including the Canal Park area and other low lying shoreline areas.
Lakeshore Flood Warning for the green shaded area on the map.
Here’s a look at the precipitation type forecast for this weekend’s storm.
Source: 12z European model 11.29.19; https://weathermodels.com/
Snow is forecast to spread into southern portions of the Northland by late tonight while some lake effect snow showers develop along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Snow reaches Duluth and Superior ~4 to 6 AM Saturday.
Snow continues to lift farther north through Saturday morning and gets closer to the Borderland by around Noon.
The entire Northland should be getting snow by Saturday evening.
Snow continues Saturday night.
Still snowing Sunday morning.
Snow tapers off from NW-SE Sunday afternoon.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Friday, November 29, 2019.
Our weekend winter storm is over the Rockies today and will move slowly out into the Plains on Saturday. This storm looks very impressive on satellite imagery today.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu/
A strong area of low pressure is forecast to move east-northeast out of the Rockies tonight, this low will track south of Minnesota on Saturday, and is forecast to move into Southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. Central pressure of this low is forecast to range from ~986mb to ~996mb through Sunday.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Low pressure to the west with deep southerly flow ahead of this low which is able to tap into a rich supply of gulf moisture. This moisture will make it into the Northland on Saturday where it interacts with colder air resulting in widespread snow this weekend.
Low temperature forecast for Saturday morning, November 30. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/
High temperature forecast for Saturday, November 30.
Outlook for Duluth and Superior
***Blizzard Warning*** for Duluth 6 AM Saturday to Noon Sunday.
***Winter Storm Warning*** for Superior 6 AM Saturday to Noon Sunday.
***Lakeshore Flood Warning*** 12 PM Saturday to 6 PM Sunday.
-Patchy freezing drizzle possible tonight with increasing east to northeast winds at 15 to 25 mph.
-Snow is forecast to begin in the Twin Ports around 4 to 6 AM Saturday.
-Snow through the day Saturday into Saturday night. Note: There could be a few breaks in the snow during the day Saturday, and if or when that happens precipitation could transition to some freezing drizzle.
-Heaviest snow is expected from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning, and this is when blizzard conditions are expected to develop.
-Travel will be difficult to impossible Saturday into Sunday morning.
-East to northeast winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph Saturday into early Sunday.
-The combination of strong winds and wet snow may cause power outages.
-Lakeshore flooding could develop in Canal Park and other low lying shoreline areas from Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
Tim
Thanks for reading!
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