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Thaw continues Sunday (highs mid 30s to mid 40s)

Our late December thaw continues Sunday with widespread above normal temperatures by some 15 to 30 degrees.

Record High Temperatures for December 22nd

Note: I think Duluth’s record high for December 22nd is safe, but the other records on the list below could be tied or broken on Sunday.

Duluth, MN: 50F set in 1890
Ashland, WI: 46F set in 1931
Brainerd, MN: 45F set in 1994
International Falls, MN: 42F set in 1954
Hibbing, MN: 41F set in 1991, tied in 1994

Source: 12z European ensemble model 12.21.19; https://weathermodels.com/

Troughs over the far western U.S.; and over the southeast U.S. with a big time ridge in between.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 12.21.19; https://weathermodels.com/

Source: 18z NAM model 12.21.19; https://weather.cod.edu/

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Low temperature forecast for Sunday morning, December 22, 2019. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Sunday, December 22.

…Weather Summary…

A quiet weather pattern will continue in our area through Christmas Day.

A very mild airmass will remain over us into Sunday with 850mb temperatures of +10 to around +15C, this is unusually warm for this time of year, but remember these are temperatures at ~5000 feet. We would need strong mixing to occur for all this warm air to reach down to the surface, will likely mix some of this warm air down to the surface on Sunday, but likely not all of it. In addition, sun angle is low, and days are short at this time of year, this combined with a deep snow pack will probably limit how warm we do get on Sunday.

I think will have widespread mid 30s to mid 40s for highs on Sunday with some of the climate stations in the Northland getting close to their record highs for December 22nd, it’s possible if we get enough mixing that temperatures could really take off and approach 50 degrees in a few locations. It’s also possible we could see widespread low clouds/fog develop later tonight, and if this does occur and sticks around during the day Sunday, then highs will likely hold in the 30s which would bust my temperature forecast.

A cold front moves through the Northland Sunday night, but temperatures will remain above normal with highs on Monday in the 20s to lower 30s.

A weak system may affect the Northland ~December 26 with a little snow or mixed precipitation, otherwise it looks pretty quiet around here through next weekend with a split flow in place with no strong signals of any phasing/stronger storms affecting our area through the end of the month per model guidance.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. Low 23 to 28. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday… Mild. Patchy fog possible mainly early. Partly to mostly sunny. High 39 to 44. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday… Mostly cloudy. High 26 to 31. Wind north 10 to 15 mph becoming east later in the day.

Normal temperatures for December 22

High 20
Low 5

Sunrise Sunday 7:51 AM CST
Sunset Sunday 4:23 PM CST

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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