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Snow on the way for Monday with falling temperatures; Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in effect

-Winter Storm Warning (pink) in effect until Midnight Monday night including the cities of Ely, Hibbing, Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay and Grand Marais.

-Winter Storm Warning in effect until Midnight tonight including International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Walker and Pine River. Note: These same areas are under a Winter Weather Advisory which is in effect from Midnight tonight to Midnight Monday night.

-Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 AM Monday to Midnight Monday night including Duluth, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Superior, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley, Grantsburg, Spooner and Hayward.

-Winter Weather Advisory (purple) in effect from Midnight tonight to Midnight Monday night including Brainerd, Hill City and Aitkin.

*Plan on slippery road conditions.

*Travel could be very difficult to impossible in the warning area on Monday. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

*Snow and blowing snow combined with gusty winds on Monday will produce periods of low visibility.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Here’s my snowfall forecast for part two of this winter storm. Totals are through 6 AM Tuesday with the bulk of this snow falling on Monday into Monday night.

*10 to 12 inches of snow for Hurley and Gile, and just east of Ashland.

*6 to 10 inches of snow for Ashland, Port Wing, Solon Springs and Holyoke.

*4 to 6 inches of snow for Ely, Grand Marais, Silver Bay, Two Harbors, Duluth, Superior, Cloquet, Moose Lake and Sandstone.

*A range of 1 to 4 inches of snow for western areas including International Falls, Grand Rapids, Brainerd, Aitkin, Hibbing and Cook.

This has been a very complex storm system. The original low is still over southwest Minnesota late this afternoon and will drift E-SE, more or less hugging the Minnesota-Iowa state line through Monday morning while a secondary low spins up over southern Wisconsin, this low becomes the dominant low on Monday as it lifts north and even a bit northwest, reaching eastern portions of Lake Superior by Tuesday morning.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

A classic storm with warm air on one side of low pressure (red L on map) cold air on the backside of the low.

Source: RTMA model; https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Dry slot remains over the Northland this afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. Note: Dry air shows up as yellow colors on this map, while the blue, white and green colors indicate moisture. Eventually will see the moisture to our east get pulled back to the west, this should happen by late tonight or Monday.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Light rain, wet snow and a wintry mix of precipitation will linger across the Northland tonight with steadier snow expected on Monday in northeast and east-central Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin (blue colors on map)

Snow is expected to taper off Monday night from W-E, but lake effect snow showers will continue into early Tuesday afternoon along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 12.29.19; https://weathermodels.com/

Additional Snowfall Reports from around the Northland

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Event Dates: December 28-29, 2019

Bigfork, MN: 12.5″
1 NW Chisholm, MN: 10.4″
1 NNW Big Falls, MN: 9.2″
6 E Island Lake, MN: 9.2″
5 NW Walker, MN: 9.0″
1 NNE Hibbing, MN: 8.0″
5 SW Crane Lake, MN: 7.0″
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 6.3″
2 SSW Ely, MN: 6.0″
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Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota for December 22-28, 2019

High Temperature/Departure from Normal

12/22: 39F/+19 degrees above normal
12/23: 31F/+11 degrees above normal
12/24: 32F/+12 degrees above normal
12/25: 34F/+14 degrees above normal
12/26: 33F/+13 degrees above normal
12/27: 28F/+8 degrees above normal
12/28: 33F/+13 degrees above normal

Low Temperature/Departure from Normal

12/22: 23F/+18 degrees above normal
12/23: 24F/+19 degrees above normal
12/24: 28F/+24 degrees above normal
12/25: 31F/+27 degrees above normal
12/26: 24F/+20 degrees above normal
12/27: 20F/+16 degrees above normal
12/28: 19F/+16 degrees above normal

Note: Average temperature in Duluth for the week of December 22nd: 28.5 degrees; +16.5 degrees above normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/

Total Precipitation: 0.69″
Normal: 0.26″
Departure: +0.43″ above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of December 22nd, 2019.

Temperature: 28.1 degrees
Departure: +14.6 degrees above normal

Precipitation: 0.16″
Departure: -0.04″ below normal

Average temperature, departure from mean for the week of December 22nd, 2019. Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Total precipitation, departure from mean for the week of December 22nd, 2019.

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Outlook for Duluth and Superior

*Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 AM Monday to Midnight Monday night*

*Lakeshore Flood Warning in effect until 10 PM tonight*

-Fog and drizzle with occasional light rain, sleet and wet snow tonight. Snowfall accumulations under an inch through 7 AM Monday.

-Snow develops during the day Monday with most of the snow coming Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Some rain, drizzle or sleet is still possible before Noon.

-Total snowfall accumulations by late Monday night of 4 to 6 inches.

-Temperatures of 32 to 36 degrees tonight. Temperatures falling into the 20s Monday afternoon/early evening.

-East to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph this evening with gusts to 40 mph. Winds diminish to 10 to 15 mph overnight, then will increase to 15 to 25 mph on Monday with winds shifting to the north-northwest.

-Areas of blowing snow developing on Monday.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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