Windy and colder tonight with light snow and blowing snow; chilly Sunday and Monday; warmer weather returns midweek

7.0 inches of snow at the Duluth Airport with this latest winter storm to hit the area. Seasonal snowfall total in Duluth is at 70.4 inches which is +24.5 inches above normal to date. Average seasonal snowfall total in Duluth is 86.1″. Nearly 3 feet more snow this winter compared to last winter up to January 18th (70.4″ vs. 35.3″)

Models did a horrible job with forecasting snowfall ratios last night. For example, in Duluth, models were showing ratios of around 15:1 to 18:1, instead we had ratios of around 10:1 Liquid precip total of 0.67″ in Duluth last night and today, fluffed up to 7.0″ of snow using the 10:1 ratio, if the ratios would have been 15:1, our snowfall total would have jumped to ~10 inches, while an 18:1 ratio using the 0.67″ QPF total would have caused our snow total to jump to ~12 inches. There are many things forecasters use in determining how much snow a city will get, and the ratio is one of those things, if the models overestimate what the the ratio will be in a snow event, snow totals will end up less than what the forecast calls for. Forecasting winter storms is not easy!

*Winter Storm Snowfall Totals from around the Northland*

Event Dates: January 17-18, 2020

Source https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

9 W Hovland, MN: 16.5″
7 WSW Hovland, MN: 16.0″
4 N Hovland, MN: 14.0″
3 E Finland, MN: 14.0″
2 ENE Grand Marais, MN: 13.0″
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 11.2″
6 NNW Two Harbors, MN: 11.1″
Wolf Ridge, MN: 11.0″
Brimson, MN: 11.0″
14 Isabella, MN: 10.0″
2 ESE Cohasset, MN: 10.0″
McKinley, MN: 10.0″
11 NE Island Lake, MN: 9.7″
4 E Island Lake, MN: 9.6″
Leader, MN: 9.0″
9 NE Hill City, MN: 9.0″
Two Harbors, MN: 8.9″
Bigfork, MN: 8.5″
2 E Iron Junction, MN: 8.3″
9 N Bayfield, WI: 8.0″
3 N Mahtowa, MN: 7.8″
1 NNE Cloquet, MN: 7.7″
International Falls, MN: 7.7″
Brainerd, MN: 7.6″
Wrenshall, MN: 7.2″
1 SE Moose Lake, MN: 7.0″
Willow River, MN: 7.0″
12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 7.0″
Cotton, MN: 7.0″
Duluth Airport: 7.0″
3 SSE Oliver, WI: 6.8″
Kettle River, MN: 6.8″
3 ESE Patzau, WI: 6.5″
4 SE Superior, WI: 6.0″
Cass Lake, MN: 6.0″
Herbster, WI: 5.8″
3 S Ashland, WI: 5.2″
Port Wing, WI: 4.5″
Gile, WI: 4.0″

Here’s a look at total snowfall accumulations from Friday morning to Saturday morning, January 17-18, 2020.

Source https://lab.weathermodels.com/

-Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 PM this evening including the cities of International Falls, Grand Rapids, Walker, Brainerd, Aitkin, Hinckley, Duluth, Superior, Hibbing, Ely, Grantsburg, Spooner and Hayward.

-Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 9 PM tonight for the North Shore including the cities of Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay and Grand Marais.

-Winter Storm Warning in effect until 3 AM Sunday including the cities of Port Wing, Washburn and Bayfield.

-Winter Storm Warning in effect until Noon Sunday including the cities of Ashland, Gile and Hurley.

Source https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Road Conditions

Minnesota https://lb.511mn.org/

Wisconsin https://511wi.gov/

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Torch fest! The temperature pattern through early February looks fairly mild across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, certainly no indications of a prolonged arctic airmass in our area looking out the next 2 weeks per model guidance.

Note: Orange, red, brown and white colors represent above normal temperatures while blue and green colors represent below normal temperatures on the map below.

Source 12z European ensemble model 1.18.20; https://weathermodels.com/

Low temperature forecast for Sunday morning, January 19, 2020. Source https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Sunday, January 19.

…Weather Summary…

It will be windy and colder the next few days, but certainly nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year when it comes to the temperatures.

Light snow, flurries and blowing snow will continue in the Northland tonight with some heavier snow along the South Shore where another 2 to 5 inches of snow is possible through Sunday morning. Elsewhere, additional snow accumulations of around an inch.

Northwest winds gusting 20 to 40 mph will continue most of the night which will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Lows tonight will range from the single digits below to teens above zero with highs on Sunday in the teens to around 20 degrees.

Winds on Sunday will be out of the north-northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Sunday with a chance for a little snow spreading from north to south Sunday afternoon/night. As for accumulations, perhaps a half-inch to inch of snow for some of us.

Strong high pressure settles into the upper Midwest on Monday with seasonably cold temps with highs in the teens to around 20 degrees.

Looks warmer midweek with highs potentially hitting 30 degrees, if not a little warmer!

Note: I am keeping an eye on late week snow chances as a system comes out of the Plains ~January 23 to 25 time frame, but at the moment it appears most of the snow with this one would stay to our south/east, but its close, any shift in the storm track more to the north would increase the chance for another snow event in parts of the Northland late next week. Stay tuned.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Windy with areas of blowing snow. Light snow and flurries. Additional accumulations less than an inch. Mostly cloudy. Low 4 to 9. Wind northwest 15 to 30 mph.

.Sunday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. High 15 to 20. Wind north to northwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 17 to 22. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest late.

Normal temperatures for January 19

High 19
Low 1

Sunrise Sunday 7:47 AM CST
Sunset Sunday 4:52 PM CST

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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