Turning more humid the next few days with a chance for a few showers/t-storms

A more typical summer time pattern returns the next few days. Dew points will be on the rise on Friday, with muggy conditions possibly continuing through Sunday, especially across southern areas. Dew points on Friday are forecast to climb into the 60s area-wide, then on Saturday will see dew points of 65 to 75 degrees in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but a drier air mass could spread into northern Minnesota Saturday afternoon, and if this happens, dew points would likely fall into the 40s and 50s across northern Minnesota Saturday afternoon. Note: Sunday is a crap shoot at the moment as to whether or not muggy conditions return to northern Minnesota, or if the muggier conditions remain over central and southern Minnesota.

High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Note: I’m not too impressed with the prospects for severe weather across the Northland through Sunday as ingredients needed for severe weather don’t really line up in our area, but a few strong storms are possible Friday-Friday night and again on Sunday, primarily over east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as these areas should be closest to the instability gradient where the strongest instability and steepest lapse rates will reside which will be across central/southern Minnesota.

Simulated radar forecast valid from 1 AM tonight to 7 AM Saturday shows the scattered nature of showers and storms across the region through Saturday morning. Expect downpours and lightning with some of the storms, and possibly hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms.

Source: 18z NAM 3km model 8.6.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Looks like will be in a zonal flow (west to east) through the weekend, but small dips or disturbances embedded in this zonal flow will move east out of the Northern Plains on Friday and again Sunday, as those disturbances move east they will create some lift in the atmosphere and when combined with a warm, humid and somewhat unstable air mass will likely see some showers and thunderstorms develop at times Friday into early Saturday, and again on Sunday. Will also see a warm front lift NE out of western Minnesota on Friday, followed by a cold front which moves ESE Friday night, and then another warm front/cold front combo for Sunday, those boundaries will also help create lift in the atmosphere giving us a chance for some rain at times the next few days.

Source: 18z NAM 500mb vertical velocity forecast valid from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM Sunday; https://www.pivotalweather.com/

The Storm Prediction Center has put most of the Northland in a Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for Friday and Friday night, this risk area is roughly along and west of a line from Ely to Hayward (light green shaded area on map) the main threats are from hail and gusty winds. Note: A greater chance of severe thunderstorms covers northwest Minnesota for Friday (yellow outlined area on map)

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Moderate Drought and Abnormally Dry conditions continue to cover portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin in this week’s drought monitor update.

Note: Duluth is running -2.81″ below normal in rainfall since June 1st and -6.20″ below normal in precipitation since January 1st. So after making some improvements in our precipitation deficits in July, we’re now going right back into bigger deficits, but still better compared to where we were back in June, but if we don’t get some more rain soon our deficits will continue to increase!

8% of Minnesota remains in D1 or Moderate Drought, unchanged from last week while 37% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry, this is up from 28% last week.

Moderate Drought in orange and abnormally dry conditions in yellow on the maps below.

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

<1% of Wisconsin is in Moderate Drought, unchanged from last week, while 5% of Wisconsin in Abnormally Dry, up from 1% last week.

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Forecast models remain in good agreement for next week as a mild weather pattern is expected across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes leading to above normal temperatures across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

It looks like will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s for daytime highs next week in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, and it could also be a bit muggy at times.

Source: 12z European ensemble (EPS) model 8.6.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Source: 12z GEFS model 8.6.2020; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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