Turning more humid the next few days with chances for a few showers/t-storms; much cooler risks (patchy frost?) ~August 27-30

A northwest flow aloft will remain in place over the upper Midwest through Friday while a stationary front sets up near the Minnesota/Ontario border. Warm southerly winds will be found south of that boundary across the Northland through the end of the week with daytime highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s with some upper 80s even possible Thursday and Friday if there is enough sun around. Dew points will be climbing into the 60s from Wednesday through Friday, and with the increase in low level moisture, instability values will also be rising to levels which could be enough to spark a few strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin over the next few days. The best chances for getting some rain look to be on Wednesday, and then sometime Friday/Saturday, but far northern Minnesota near the Ontario border southeast to the tip of the Arrowhead could have some rain anytime from tonight through Friday since this area will be closest to a stationary front (source of lift)

18z HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid from 1 AM tonight to 1 AM Thursday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/


The heat continues today across the western U.S. east into the Northern Plains and Western High Plains.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

A ridiculously large and intense ridge resulting in blazing heat across the western U.S. with 500mb heights underneath the center of the ridge sitting at 600 meters today, the eastern flank of this heat will reach into the Dakotas over the next few days, and may even get into western/southern Minnesota at times through early next week.

Source: RAP model; https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


Summer rolls on for now, but I am seeing risks for cooler temperatures showing up in model guidance toward the end of the month, possibly cold enough at night for the first patchy frost threat of the season in parts of the Northland sometime in the August 27 to September 2 time frame, so this will be a time frame to keep an eye on!

*The average date for the first freeze 32 degree or lower temperature in Duluth is September 30th, and about 2 weeks earlier at International Falls.

*The average date for the first 35 degree or lower temperature in Duluth is September 23rd, and about 2 weeks earlier at International Falls. Note: Usually temperatures in the mid 30s is a good threshold for getting frost around here.

Looks like ‘Winter of Doom’ 2020-2021 may be starting early around here!

A little crispness in the air, perhaps? Will see if the computer models continue to show this cool shot toward the end of the month, or if they start to back away from it as it gets closer in time.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Thanks for reading!


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