Dry and cool tonight; mild southwest breeze Tuesday afternoon with a risk for a few late afternoon-evening showers/t-storms

Tuesday will start out cool, but temperatures will warm into the middle 60s to lower 70s Tuesday afternoon (a few locales might even get up to around 75 degrees) Normal highs on September 1st are in the lower 70s.

Most of the day Tuesday looks dry across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but there could be a few showers or thunderstorms around from late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as a quick moving system passes through the area. Moisture and instability will be limited on Tuesday, but there could be just enough of both to produce a few showers or storms late in the day.

It does look a tad windy on Tuesday with southwesterly winds 15 to 25 mph (higher gusts are possible)

18z NAM 3km simulated radar forecast valid from 1 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday; Source: https://weathermodels.com/

We’ve got two more systems lined up through Thursday, the strongest of the two moves through the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

Tuesday’s system could bring a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly to north-central and northeast Minnesota mainly late in the afternoon and into the evening, while the system for Wednesday night and Thursday looks to bring a few more showers to the Northland with the best chances again across northern Minnesota the way it looks now.

Source: 18z NAM model 8.31.2020; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

A strong area of low pressure of around 978-985mb is expected to pass north of Lake Superior on Thursday, this system could bring gale force and possibly even storm force winds to parts of Lake Superior (especially central/eastern portions of the lake) on Thursday.

Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

It’s a fairly active weather pattern at the moment as the transition from summer to fall is well underway!

Source: Goes-16 water vapor loop 8.31.2020; https://weather.cod.edu/

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Rainfall Reports from Monday, August 31st, 2020

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

Cass Lake, MN: 1.20″

Bigfork, MN: 1.16″

Grand Marais, MN: 1.07″

Orr, MN: 0.94″

Longville, MN: 0.88″

Two Harbors, MN: 0.87″

Moose Lake, MN: 0.80″

Walker, MN: 0.77″

Duluth Airport: 0.75″

International Falls, MN: 0.74″

Saginaw, MN: 0.73″

Littlefork, MN: 0.72″

Cloquet, MN: 0.71″

Aitkin, MN: 0.70″

Ely, MN: 0.69″

Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.69″

Superior Airport: 0.57″

Solon Springs, WI: 0.54″

Minong, WI: 0.53″

Brainerd, MN: 0.51″

Clam Lake, WI: 0.51″

Hinckley, MN: 0.50″

Siren, WI: 0.46″

Hayward, WI: 0.46″

Glidden, WI: 0.41″

Washburn, WI: 0.38″

Ashland, WI: 0.37″

Note: 0.75″ of rain reported at the Duluth Airport today, Monday, August 31st, 2020 – This is the greatest rainfall total for the month. The second greatest was on August 7th with 0.71″ of rain.

Here’s a look at today’s system on Goes-16 visible satellite imagery, a pretty impressive system as we wrap up meteorological summer 2020!

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

A 6-hour radar loop from 6 AM to Noon, Monday, August 31st, 2020.

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There is a third system lined up for this weekend, although some timing differences are seen in model guidance today as to when exactly this system would impact the Northland (if it does at all)

A surge of warm, humid and unstable air will accompany the system this weekend and it could bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin sometime late Saturday or Sunday. Stay tuned.

Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

I’m continuing to see strong signals in model guidance for a shot of very cool air for next week. Note: There is still a bit of uncertainty as to when this cool air arrives, and how long it will stick around for, but at the very least it’s looking quite cool especially the early to middle part of next week (September 7-9)

It looks like will have highs mainly in the 50s across the Northland on a few days next week while overnight lows dip into the 30s. The first frost and or freeze of the season is possible next week in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 8.31.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

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Here are the climate normals and records for September at Duluth, Minnesota.

Normal high on the 1st: 71 degrees
Normal high on the 30th: 59 degrees

Normal low on the 1st: 52 degrees
Normal low on the 30th: 40 degrees

Averages and Records for September

Temperature: 55.6 degrees
Warmest: 62.6 degrees set in 1897
Coldest: 47.8 degrees set in 1974

Precipitation: 4.11″
Wettest: 11.52″ set in 1881
Driest: 0.19″ set in 1952

Snowfall: 0.1″
Snowiest: 2.4″ set in 1991

Number of days at or above 80 degrees: 2
Most was 10 days set in 1908

Number of days at or below 32 degrees: 1
Most was 7 days set in 1974

Astronomical Data for September

Sunrise on the 1st: 6:29 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th: 7:06 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st: 7:47 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th: 6:48 PM CDT

Note: The Autumnal Equinox is on Tuesday, September 22nd, 2020 at 8:30 AM.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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