More of the same! Mild and foggy at times

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for much of northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM Friday.

  • Some cities in the dense fog advisory include International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Cook, Ely, Isabella, Superior, Solon Springs, Grantsburg, Danbury and Siren.
  • Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog. Some freezing fog may result in slippery roads and sidewalks.
  • Impacts include hazardous conditions due to low visibility. Slick road conditions and sidewalks will be possible due to freezing fog.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Darker colors on the animation below indicate visibility of zero to one mile.

18z HRRR model visibility forecast ending 12 PM Saturday, January 9, 2021.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

We might finally be able to get rid of the low clouds and fog this weekend as two stronger waves drop SE out of central Canada which could bring stronger winds aloft to the Northland leading to better mixing occurring in the atmosphere. The first wave is forecast to move through late Saturday, followed by a stronger wave late Sunday night. Not expecting any precipitation with these systems though.

Shown below is the 18z NAM model 500mb forecast valid from 6 AM Saturday to Midnight Monday.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

  • December 29 was the last time Duluth had a subzero temperature (low of -10 F)
  • No subzero temps so far this month in Duluth, normal in January is 15 subzero nights.

Nothing close to normal in terms of temperatures in Duluth until maybe next weekend at the earliest, but with that being so far away we could easily see those temperatures rise in coming days. By the way our normal high is in the upper teens, and the normal low is around 0 in Duluth at this time of year.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

If you’re wanting more snow you’re gonna have to wait a while longer before we may see some more snow in the Northland, but there are signs showing up in the models for the pattern to turn a little snowier during the 2nd half of the month, or around/after January 15.

Here’s the 12z GEFS model 20 member snowfall forecast ending January 23, 2021.

There’s only 4/20 or 20% of GEFS members currently showing 6″+ snow amounts (highlighted in black) in our area through January 23.

Note: Normal snowfall in Duluth in January is 19.4″. So far this month we’ve only had 0.3″ of snow.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Some parts of the Northland saw the fog/low clouds burn off this afternoon which gave way to some welcome sunshine, but widespread fog/low clouds continued today south and west of that black line on the map below.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Thursday, January 7, 2021 (loop time 12:06 PM to 3:01 PM CT)

Source: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/

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Split flow continues!

Strong winds aloft over the Pacific Ocean break off into two branches, one extends NE into west-central Canada, and the other across the southern US. While here in the upper Midwest the pattern is very stagnant with very weak winds aloft resulting in very little change in the weather. No signs of this pattern breaking down anytime soon.

Systems continue to miss the Northland to the north and south.

Winter Storm Warnings (pink) and Winter Weather Advisories (purple) in effect for parts of the southeast US through Friday.

NWS snowfall forecast shows anywhere from 2 to around 6 inches of accumulation through Friday night in parts of Tennessee, North Carolina and Virginia.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Tim

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