11:19 AM CT
Things are changing quite rapidly with the system for Thursday-Friday with huge shifts occurring in model guidance this morning. Not a good sign considering this system is less than 24 hours away.
There are quite a few red flags showing up per model data this morning regarding the late week system compared to the last few days.
I’m noticing a trend starting to show up in some of the forecast models per 12z run this morning for the Thursday-Friday low to take a track much farther south compared to what some of the guidance had been showing the last few days, in fact if this trend continues, there may not be much snow in northeast Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin as the bulk of the snow would set up from north-central Minnesota down through southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin – See maps below.
The first scenario would still result in accumulating snow in most of the Northland except in the Arrowhead, with snow also occurring in Duluth and Superior.
The second scenario which some of the computer models are starting to show per 12z run would keep most of the snow over western/southern parts of the Northland with only a little snow for most of northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin including for Duluth and Superior.
Note: For now I won’t be making any changes to my preliminary snowfall forecast which I put out Tuesday evening, but expect some changes to it by later today.
Note: Timing is all over the place as well, with some models showing precipitation reaching Duluth Thursday morning before Noon, while other models delay things until Thursday night. Lots to sort out through the day today. More updates later.