Very cold tonight followed by a warming trend; Snow chances return this weekend and again mid/late next week

  • Another night of frigid temperatures tonight as lows range from the teens to 20s below zero in the Northland, with some 30s below possible once again in the traditional cold spots. Note: Tonight should be the last subzero night we see for a while, possibly until next weekend (super bowl weekend)
  • Temperatures will start to warm-up Thursday afternoon, with highs mostly in the teens.
  • Highs mainly in the 20s are then expected Friday through most of next week while overnight lows stay above zero!

A Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for far northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM Thursday. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Some cities in the Northland included in the wind chill advisory: International Falls, Ely, Isabella and Grand Marais.

Wind chills as low as 30 below zero in the advisory area. The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

  • Some snow is possible in parts of the Northland this weekend, but computer models differ significantly on how much snow will see.
  • GFS and its ensemble model (GEFS) continue to show much higher snow totals this weekend, especially along the North Shore where >6″ of snow could fall due to a prolonged period of easterly winds which could lead to some lake enhanced/orographic enhanced snowfall. The UK and German-Icon models agree with the GFS model, but then you have a much drier scenario showing up per European and NAM guidance today.
  • The actual low itself will pass well to our south this weekend as it moves across the Midwest, but a trough extending N-NW of that low will likely produce some snow, but how much snow and where that trough sets up and how long it lingers are still unknown today.
  • Snowfall amounts could end up as low as a trace to 2″, or as much as 3-7″+ this weekend across the Northland. Stay tuned.

…Next week’s storm threat…

Another system/s could impact the Northland sometime during the middle/end of next week, and this one could bring another round/s of snow to our area, and it could be a significant amount, but that will depend on how strong this system is and the track of it, and those two things are still uncertain, and will remain that way for a few more days.

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This is more like it! Finally some typical January weather around here when it comes to cold temperatures.

Check out some of these low temperatures from around the Northland from this morning, Wednesday, January 27, 2021.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • Ash Lake, MN: -35F
  • Cotton, MN: -35 F
  • Kabetogama, MN: -33 F
  • Effie, MN: -30 F
  • Babbitt, MN: -29 F
  • Crane Lake, MN: -29 F
  • Cook, MN: -29 F
  • Ely, MN: -29 F
  • International Falls, MN: -29 F
  • Orr, MN: -29 F
  • Cass Lake, MN: -27 F
  • Bigfork, MN: -26 F
  • Eveleth-Virginia, MN: -25 F
  • Hill City, MN: -24 F
  • Northome, MN: -23 F
  • Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: -22 F
  • Longville, MN: -22 F
  • Walker, MN: -22 F
  • Twig, MN: -21 F
  • 3 E Wright, MN: -20 F
  • Aitkin, MN: -20 F
  • South Range, WI: -19 F
  • Barnes, WI: -18 F
  • Isabella, MN: -18 F
  • Grand Rapids, MN: -18 F
  • Minong, WI: -18 F
  • Two Harbors, MN: -17 F
  • Saginaw, MN: -16 F
  • Butternut, WI: -15 F
  • Glidden, WI: -15 F
  • Hayward, WI: -15 F
  • Pine River, MN: -15 F
  • Moose Lake, MN: -15 F
  • Grand Marais, MN: -14 F
  • Hermantown, MN: -12 F
  • Breezy Point, MN: -12 F
  • Duluth Airport: -11 F
  • Duluth Harbor: -6 F

Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Warm air masses have been the theme so far this winter, with only a few shots of arctic air mixed in.

Average temperatures across the Northland for the winter of 2020-2021 continue to run well above normal by some 5 to nearly 10 degrees!

Average Temperature/Departure from Normal for the winter of 2020-2021 (Dec. 1, 2020 – Jan. 26, 2021)

Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/

  • Duluth, MN: 19.3 degrees; +6.7 degrees above normal
  • Brainerd, MN: 19.1 degrees; +7.7 degrees above normal
  • International Falls, MN: 16.8 degrees; +9.6 degrees above normal
  • Hibbing, MN: 15.4 degrees; +6.3 degrees above normal

Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

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…Atmospheric River Event…

A powerful winter storm continues to affect parts of the western US today, with an atmospheric river event in place as well. This is all leading to widespread heavy precipitation and powerful winds, with incredible amounts of snow in the mountains of California. Note: Snowfall totals of 3 to as much as 8 feet are possible over the northern Sierra and southern Cascades through Friday, this along with wind gusts of 50-70+ mph!

Water vapor loop from Wednesday, January 27, 2021.

Source: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/

An incredible amount of moisture moving in off the Pacific and into parts of California today, with PWATS of an inch or more which is +2 to +3 sigma above normal!

Source: 12z GFS model; https://weather.cod.edu/

Several different warnings in effect through Friday.

Blizzard Warning (red)

Winter Storm Warning (pink)

Flooding (greens)

High Wind (brown)

Tim

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