Blustery near Lake Superior tonight; some snow continues at times tonight and Sunday

Snowfall Reports from around the Northland for Saturday, January 30, 2021

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • 2 WNW Two Harbors, MN: 4.0″
  • 2 NNW Lester Park, MN: 3.0″
  • 1 WSW Ely, MN: 2.0″
  • 3 N Island Lake, MN: 2.0″
  • Duluth Airport: 2.0″
  • 3 NNE Duluth, MN: 1.8″
  • 2 WSW Lester Park, MN: 1.4″
  • 1 NE Lester Park, MN: 1.3″
  • 1 S Twig, MN: 1.0″
  • International Falls, MN: 0.3″

Some snow will continue to fall in parts of the Northland tonight and Sunday, but most of this snow will be on the light side with very minimal impacts for most of the area. The exception to this will continue to be near Lake Superior along the North Shore where heavier lake enhanced snowfall will persist tonight, and possibly even into the day Sunday as winds remain out of the east.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending Midnight Monday.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

No real organization to tonight’s snowfall, except along the North Shore where the snow will be more widespread and persistent for most of the night, but elsewhere the snow will continue to be pretty patchy with some spots getting up to 2 inches, while others see less than 1 inch, or no snow at all.

Note: In the Northland – A Winter Weather Advisory continues until 6 AM Sunday for the North Shore including Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Isabella and Grand Marais.

Winter Weather Advisories (purple) remain in effect in parts of the upper Midwest tonight into early Sunday morning, while Winter Storm Warnings (pink) are in effect farther south, including the Milwaukee and Chicago areas.

We’ve certainly seen some heavier lake enhanced snowfall at times (green colors on animation below) today near Lake Superior, especially along the North Shore from just outside of Duluth to Two Harbors, Silver Bay to Grand Marais. Elsewhere the snow has been very patchy today since we really don’t have a whole lot of lift or moisture over our area.

Radar loop from 1 AM to 5 PM Saturday, January 30, 2021.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

A strong low pressure system is making its way ENE out of the southern Plains and into the Midwest tonight. This storm has produced some severe weather including a few tornadoes this afternoon in northeast Oklahoma and nearby areas, while a dust storm and high winds impacted parts of Texas and Oklahoma today (black outlined area on map)

Goes-16 visible loop from Saturday, January 30, 2021.

Source: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/

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…Update on next week’s storm threat…

What looked like an interesting system for mid to late next week has changed considerably in a matter of 24 hours, but we’ve seen this play out a few times this winter, where the computer models show a more active pattern developing for the Northland in the long range (typically 5-7 days out) only for those models to trend to a less active pattern in our area, and wouldn’t you know, the same thing is happening for next week per model data.

What we’re seeing for next week is two pieces of energy, one in the northern jet, the other in the southern jet (black outlined areas on animation below) the models had been showing this system phasing quite well which meant a chance for a significant storm impacting parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes next week, but over the last day those models have all shifted toward a progressive and less phased system which results in only a very minor snowfall event (if any snow occurs at all) affecting the Northland mid to late next week.

Could the models change right back to a more organized storm for next week? Sure they could since the energy won’t be moving ashore into the western US until sometime late Tuesday and that’s when the models will sample this system better, so will see how this all plays out over the next few days.

12z Euro ensemble 500mb forecast valid from February 2-5, 2021.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Tim

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