Hot weather on the way late this week into this weekend with record/near record warmth possible; Isolated showers/t-storms Wednesday and Thursday, but overall a dry pattern thru this weekend

Things are still on track for the first big heat wave of the summer to arrive late this week, but first Wednesday and Thursday will feature high temps in the 70s to lower 80s in the Northland, with some mid 80s possible on Thursday. Note: A lake wind is possible both Wednesday and Thursday which would keep temperatures a little cooler by the big lake if we do indeed get an easterly wind.

…Record High Temperatures for Duluth, Minnesota from June 3rd to June 7th…

6/3: 90 degrees (set in 1948)

6/4: 90 degrees (set in 1968)

6/5: 88 degrees (set in 1988)

6/6: 88 degrees (set in 1976)

6/7: 88 degrees (set in 1894, 1959 and 1988)

Note: At the moment it looks like our best shot at tying or setting a new record high temperature in Duluth will come Friday, Saturday and Sunday, but it should be noted that the computer models are showing mixed signals with the wind direction on Friday, with the Euro model now showing an easterly wind which would lead to temperatures being quite a bit cooler in the Twin Ports (closer to Lake Superior) on Friday before the heat moves in over the weekend thanks to a stronger SW wind.

Record warm low temperatures are also possible in Duluth later this week into early next week.

Dew points won’t be terribly high around here until we get into the weekend, this is when dew points climb into the 60s, but before then dew points look to mostly be in the 40s and 50s over the next few days.

Triple digit temperatures are possible on Friday over much of northern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, possibly as hot as 101 to 103 degrees, while highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s are forecast in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Check out these forecasted temperatures at the 925mb level for Friday afternoon – Big time warmth moving in later this week.

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Not a whole lot of rain expected in our area at least through this weekend, but we could see some rain next week so will see how that plays out in model guidance over the next few days, but overall we’re looking at below normal precipitation in the Northland over the next two weeks.

NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast thru 1 AM Thursday does show a few isolated showers moving through parts of the Northland tonight through Wednesday night, but again this won’t be a widespread/soaking rain event by any means.

Can’t rule out a few isolated thunderstorms as well on Wednesday, but instability doesn’t look very high, plus mid level lapse rates are on the poor side, so I’m not expecting too much in the way of thunderstorm activity in our area on Wednesday.

It’s been a very quite start to the severe weather season in the Northland, with only two warnings issued so far this year. By this time last year, the NWS Duluth had issued 9 warnings in their forecast coverage area. Note: Dating back to 2000, the most warnings issued thru June 1st was in 2011 with 73 severe thunderstorm + tornado warnings issued in the Northland.

Tim

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