Dry into early next week; Wildfire smoke possible Friday-Saturday; Drought update

A quiet weather pattern will remain in place across the Northland into early next week, with about the only real weather issue we could be dealing with would be some wildfire smoke due to the wildfires which continue to burn across eastern Manitoba and western Ontario Canada (orange outlined area)

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Thursday, July 8, 2021.

Here’s a Goes-16 GeoColor satellite loop from Wednesday, July 7, 2021 showing the multiple wildfires which are burning in Manitoba and Ontario.

The HRRR model does show thicker amounts of wildfire smoke pushing south and eventually southwest across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday and Saturday.

Note: Thicker smoke shows up in the orange, red and purple colors on the maps below.

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…Record Cold in the Northland this morning, Thursday, July 8, 2021…

Hibbing, Minnesota: New record low of 34 degrees; old record was 37 degrees set on July 8, 2015.

Ashland, Wisconsin: Record low temperature of 36 degrees for July 8th was tied this morning. The previous record was set in 1918.

…Record Low Temperatures for July 9…

Note: It doesn’t look quite as cold tonight as it was last night, so the record lows for July 9 are probably safe, but Ashland could get close to their record low once again Friday morning.

Brainerd, MN: 39 set in 1977

International Falls, MN: 40 set in 1922

Ashland, WI: 41 set in 1997 and 2009

Hibbing, MN: 42 set in 1977

Duluth, MN: 42 set in 1997

Low Temperature Reports from Thursday morning, July 8, 2021

  • 6 WSW Beaver Bay, MN: 32
  • Skibo, MN: 32
  • Eveleth, MN: 32
  • Aitkin, MN: 34
  • Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 34
  • Ely, MN: 36
  • Grand Marais Airport: 36
  • Ashland, WI: 36
  • Superior Airport: 36
  • South Range, WI: 36
  • McGregor, MN: 37
  • Cloquet, MN: 37
  • Isabella, MN: 37
  • Cook, MN: 37
  • Crane Lake, MN: 37
  • Hermantown, MN: 37
  • Bigfork, MN: 39
  • Two Harbors, MN: 39
  • Grand Rapids, MN: 40
  • Duluth Airport: 40 (2nd coldest low on record for 7/8)
  • Barnes, WI: 40
  • Washburn, WI: 41
  • Esko, MN: 41
  • Longville, MN: 41
  • Moose Lake, MN: 42
  • Pine River, MN: 43
  • Deer River, MN: 43
  • Solon Springs, WI: 43
  • Minong, WI: 43
  • Walker, MN: 44
  • Brainerd, MN: 44 (3rd coldest low on record for 7/8)
  • International Falls, MN: 44
  • Siren, WI: 44
  • Hayward, WI: 44
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…Drought Update as of July 6, 2021…

Minnesota

  • 39% of the state is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange) This is up from 11% last week.
  • 92% of the state is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange) This is up from 82% last week.
  • 100% of the state is Abnormally Dry.

No big changes in this week’s drought monitor in Wisconsin

  • 0.81% of the state is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red) this is unchanged from last week.
  • 2% of the state is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange) this is unchanged from last week.
  • 63% of the state is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange) this is down from 35% last week.
  • 63% of the state is Abnormally Dry (yellow) this is unchanged from last week.

Not much change in this week’s drought monitor across the Midwest.

  • 0.20% of the Midwest is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red) this is unchanged from last week.
  • 12% of the Midwest is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange) this is up from 6% last week.
  • 30% of the Midwest is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange) this is unchanged from last week.
  • 45% of the Midwest is Abnormally Dry (yellow) this is down from 48% last week.

Not a whole lot of improvement in this week’s drought monitor for North Dakota.

  • 11% of North Dakota is in D4 or Exceptional Drought (dark red) this is unchanged from last week.
  • 51% of North Dakota is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red) this is down from 60% last week.
  • 91% of North Dakota is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange) this is up from 90% last week.
  • 100% of North Dakota is in D1 or Moderate Drought and is Abnormally Dry – Both are unchanged from last week.
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Rain chances are slim to none in the Northland through early next week the way it looks now. Our next shot for getting some rain comes toward the middle of next week (~July 14).

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from Midnight tonight to 7 AM Saturday shows a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms affecting parts of southern Minnesota, while northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin stays dry.

Will have another cool night across the Northland tonight, but warmer temperatures continue to look likely from Friday through at least next Wednesday, with highs Friday in the mid 70s to low 80s, and from the upper 70s to mid 80s Saturday. Even warmer temps are possible Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, this is when we could see widespread 80s and possibly even a few 90 degree temps in our area.

High temperature forecast valid from Friday, July 9, 2021 through Wednesday, July 14, 2021.

Tim

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