A rather potent low pressure system is making its way out of the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains this afternoon with a threat for severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight across parts of the Dakotas into western Minnesota. This system and its cold front will be moving through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms, but the timing of this system is not very favorable for widespread rain and severe weather in our area since it looks to come through during the morning/early afternoon when instability should be fairly limited at least when it comes to severe weather potential, but this system will have a lot of dynamic support with strong winds from the low levels to upper levels of the atmosphere, along with strong amounts of wind shear and steep mid level lapse rates, but again the lack of instability means that severe weather chances in the Northland will be pretty low Tuesday morning-early Tuesday afternoon.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Monday, August 9, 2021.
A look at the 18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 7 PM Tuesday.
18z HRRR model simulated radar forecast through 7 PM Tuesday.
Much warmer temperatures have moved into the Northland today with widespread 80s, and even a few 90s showing up this afternoon, but a light lake breeze has kept it slightly cooler close to Lake Superior today, but compared to this past weekend’s weather, the weather today has been a whole lot nicer. Note: Areas of fog could redevelop tonight near Lake Superior due to a humid onshore flow, but any fog that develops should burn off by Tuesday afternoon as stronger southwest winds develop.
It’s quite humid in most of the Northland today with dew points ranging from the low 60s to around 70, and these muggy conditions will persist into Tuesday, but much drier air (lower dew points) will be moving quickly to the east out of the western Dakotas and will arrive in the Northland by Tuesday afternoon-early evening, and that drier air mass will likely stick around for the remainder of the week.
Not a whole lot of rain expected in the next 7 days across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, so drought conditions will continue and will probably worsen in some areas.
International Falls is running -5.26″ below normal in rainfall since June 1st, and -7.16″ below normal in precipitation since January 1st.
Duluth is running -4.40″ below normal in rainfall since June 1st, and -5.15″ below normal in precipitation since January 1st.