Tornado Watch issued for parts of the Northland; Occasional rain, t-storms (some strong to severe storms) thru tonight

A tornado watch has been issued for portions of the Northland until 4 PM today. Counties in our area included in this tornado watch are…Crow Wing, Aitkin, Carlton, Pine, Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Burnett, Washburn and Sawyer including the cities of Brainerd, Aitkin, McGregor, Cloquet, Moose Lake, Hinckley, Pine City, Solon Springs, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley, Danbury, Grantsburg, Siren, Minong, Spooner, Shell Lake, Hayward and Winter.

Primary threats include

A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

A couple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through tonight, while rain and embedded thunderstorms affect northern Minnesota, the Arrowhead and North Shore where there is a lesser chance for severe weather through tonight.

MRMS radar loop ending at Noon Saturday, August 28, 2021 shows a small but intense bow echo racing east across central Minnesota (St. Cloud area) this storm has already produced hail larger than golf ball size, and wind damage. This line of storms should continue to move east while impacting southern portions of the Northland, from around the Hinckley to Pine City areas, east toward Webster, Siren, Minong, Spooner and Shell Lake over the next few hours.

Tim

2 Comments

  1. Jeffrey Lyon says:

    Thanks for your great blog Tim. I wonder if you might be able to explain what seems to me to be a repeated, systematic error in all the forecasting models. Almost all of the rain events forecasted for Duluth have either gone to the south of their predicted trajectory or, most frustratingly, split and gone both to the north and south of town as they approach from the west. I know that the lake makes forecasting difficult (I’m not sure why) but the lake doesn’t seem to repel rain from Douglas or Bayfield counties. What gives?

    1. burrweather says:

      You’re welcome Jeffrey! Well, this is such a unique area, mostly due to Lake Superior, that lake holds so much power, it’s crazy! A lot of it at least in the summer comes down to where the frontal boundaries setup, and where the most moisture and instability is for who gets the rain and storms, and often times the computer models get that wrong, as they usually have these boundaries too far north from what actually ends up happening, so a model could show rain/storms sometimes 50-100 miles farther north of where they actually are the day of, it’s frustrating when that happens. I think there’s more to it then just Lake Superior though, but I’m not sure what it would be? Perhaps the wind direction plays a role? Since a NE wind tends to be a drier direction, well a SE wind would hold more moisture (better shot for rain to hold together?) And like you I’ve also seen numerous times where the South Shore will get hit, and even the North Shore, but yet Duluth and Superior seem to miss out, weird stuff!

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