Rain chances return late this week

Dry/pleasant weather will continue in the Northland through midweek, but wet weather could return late in the week as a new low pressure system takes aim at the upper Midwest.

Here’s an early look at the timing of Thursday’s rain, but keep in mind we could see the timing of this rain shift earlier or later than what is shown today since we’re still a few days away from this next system.

Note: Rain could begin in Duluth and Superior Thursday afternoon (~1 PM to 3 PM) the way it looks now, with some rain continuing Thursday night into Friday morning before ending Friday afternoon.

12z European model simulated radar forecast valid from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM Friday.

Euro ensemble model from Monday shows the highest chances for getting over a half inch of rain late this week centered over west-central and northern Minnesota, with lower chances for the Arrowhead, North Shore and northwest Wisconsin.

Low pressure with its warm front and cold front will move through the Northland Thursday into early Friday bringing more rain to the area, with the heaviest amounts of rain forecast to fall across western portions of the area, from the Brainerd Lakes to the Iron Range north to International Falls the way it looks now.

Forecast map valid for Thursday, September 2, 2021.

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Last week was a one wet in northeast Minnesota and in parts of northwest Wisconsin, with the bulk of this rain falling late in the week.

Observed rainfall totals, normal and percent of normal for the period August 23-29, 2021

Brainerd, Minnesota

Total rainfall: 2.51″
Normal: 0.83″
302% of normal

International Falls, Minnesota

Total rainfall: 2.00″
Normal: 0.66″
303% of normal

Duluth Airport

Total rainfall: 1.84″
Normal: 0.85″
216% of normal

Chisholm-Hibbing Airport

Total rainfall: 1.03″
Normal: 0.73″
141% of normal

Outside of a dry pocket around the Hayward Lakes area in northwest Wisconsin, the remainder of northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota saw wetter than normal conditions last week, with the greatest anomalies in the blue and purple colors.

Last week’s heavy rain has led to river flooding in the area in red.

Tim

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