–We’re looking at quite a bit more cloud cover for Thursday and Friday compared to the sunshine we’ve been enjoying the last few days.
–Light rain and drizzle will also move into the Northland from west to east Thursday and Thursday night, with some of this carrying over into Friday, mostly over eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
–Rainfall amounts with this next system don’t look very impressive in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin since the track of the main surface low will remain well to our southwest, tracking from western South Dakota to north-central Iowa between Thursday AM and Friday PM, so in the end we’re looking at mostly weak atmospheric lift in our area which gives us a little rain and drizzle from time to time.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday, September 1, 2021 — Two lows to our west today will move east Thursday and Friday while moisture (green arrows) lifts north/northeast ahead of those lows.
12z European model simulated radar forecast valid from 7 AM Thursday to 7 PM Friday.
Note: Some light rain is possible in Duluth and Superior by Thursday night (~9 to 11 PM) but prior to this there could be a some drizzle at times during the day Thursday into early Thursday evening.
18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from 1 AM tonight to 7 PM Friday.
This radar forecast looks a lot more ominous with lots of widespread green colors (rain) across the Northland on Thursday, but a lot of this should only be in the form of a drizzle, except those times where you see the darker green and yellow colors, that’s when there could actually be some measurable rain falling from the sky, and those chances look greatest Thursday evening into early Friday morning.
Rainfall totals Thursday into early Friday using a blended model approach.
Rainfall totals of a half inch or more are possible in far western portions of the area (Brainerd Lakes vicinity)
Around a quarter inch of rain is possible for places such as International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Hill City, McGregor, Moose Lake, Hinckley, Pine City and Siren.
Rainfall amounts taper off quite a bit farther east, with only trace to 0.10″ amounts expected from Ely to Two Harbors to Duluth, also including Superior, Solon Springs, Minong and Hayward.
The 12z European ensemble model would agree with the rainfall forecast above, with the highest chances of a half inch or more of rain centered over the Dakotas and west-central Minnesota, extending as far east as the Brainerd Lakes.
Tim
