Occasional showers/t-storms with heavy downpours through Monday evening; Turning cooler the next few days

Our next system to impact the Northland is a strong one with plenty of dynamics in place including strong winds aloft and strong forcing associated with the approaching trough and cold front. This system is moving along quickly, however, with much of the rain for the Northland wrapping up by Monday night.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Sunday afternoon, September 19, 2021.

Showers and thunderstorms will be confined to northern Minnesota tonight while the rest of the Northland including the Twin Ports remain dry through the night.

Rain chances will be on the increase for northeast and eastern Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin from mid to late morning Monday and through Monday afternoon.

Rain ends from west to east Monday evening/overnight.

Here’s the 18z/1 PM NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday.

Note: Rain chances will be on the increase in Duluth and Superior after 8 AM Monday.

Rainfall totals of around an inch are likely in the Northland thru Monday night, with 2″+ amounts possible especially over parts of northern Minnesota.

There will be ample amounts of moisture with this system with dew points in the 60s, and precipitable water peaking in the 1.50-1.85″ range which increases the risk for heavy downpours, but the progressive nature of the front and trough and the fact that storms should be moving fairly quickly will likely limit the threat for flooding in our area.

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Record high temperatures for September 19th were tied at Brainerd and Ashland today, while Hibbing missed their record high temperature by just 1 degree today.

Brainerd, MN: 88 F; Ties the record high for 9/19 which was set in 1940.

Ashland, WI: 87 F; Ties the record high for 9/19 which was set in 1940 and 1985.

High temperature of 85 degrees at the Duluth Airport for today, Sunday, September 19, 2021 — This is the warmest day we’ve had in Duluth since August 23, 2021 (high of 87 degrees).

We’re now up to 52 days this year with a high of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota. The record for most number of 80 degree days in a year is 53 days set in 1988. See top 5 list below.

1: 53 days set in 1988
2: 52 days set in 2021 and 2018
3: 48 days set in 2012
4: 47 days set in 1894
5: 45 days set in 2019 and 1970

Temps this afternoon were 20-25 degrees above average in the Northland, but cooler temperatures will move in over the next few days, with highs Monday in the 60s and 70s (warmest in northwest Wisconsin) and on Tuesday our highs will range from the upper 50s to middle 60s.

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…Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible in the Northland tonight and Monday…

Tonight’s risk for isolated strong to severe storms is over north-central Minnesota (dark green area on map).

Monday’s risk for isolated strong to severe storms is over northeast and eastern Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin (dark green area on map).

Primary threats from any severe storms for tonight and Monday is from damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and large hail to 1″ in diameter (quarter size).

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The same system which is impacting the upper Midwest over the next 24 hours will be bringing the season’s first accumulating snow to parts of the Northern Rockies through Monday.

Starting to see some strong signals in long range model guidance for a warm pattern to set up across the upper Midwest toward the end of this month and into early October. Perhaps a few 70+ degree days? Time will tell.

Tim

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