More fog tonight; Mild and Dry Wednesday; Rain chances return late this week into this weekend, and again at times next week

The current pattern is somewhat unusual for this time of year, and especially given the fact the pattern so far this week is quite similar to the one we saw most of last week. Weak winds aloft and strong upper level ridging with high 500mb heights covered the upper Midwest once again today, this type of pattern is more typical of July or August than early October. Speaking of those 500mb heights, they are impressive for October, as they sit right around the 588 meter mark in our area. The 500mb ridge will begin to break down late this week and along with the breakdown of this ridge will come a lowering of the 500mb heights, but those heights will likely remain >570 meters at least through Saturday which is still pretty high in this area for this time of year.

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Widespread fog last night into this morning gave way to increasing amounts of sunshine over most of the Northland this afternoon, except near Lake Superior where low clouds and patchy fog lingered through the afternoon.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Tuesday, October 5, 2021.

Another night of dense fog is likely over parts of the Northland tonight, and for this reason a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 10 AM Wednesday including the cities of Moose Lake, Carlton, Cloquet, Hibbing, Duluth, Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Superior, Solon Springs, Washburn, and Bayfield.

Expect hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility overnight into mid-morning Wednesday.

Temperatures continue to feel more like July than early October in much of the Northern Plains today with widespread 80s and even a few 90s, while 70s and 80s were found over much of Minnesota.

Note: Little change in temperatures from Thursday through Saturday, with highs in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s.

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We’re still looking at the potential for a more active weather pattern for the upper Midwest beginning late this week and carrying over into next week.

500mb forecast valid from October 6, 2021-October 15, 2021 shows an upper level ridge over the upper Midwest breaking down after Wednesday, while a trough sets up over the western U.S.; with ridging farther off to the east. This setup leads to a SW flow aloft developing across the Plains and upper Midwest, while low pressure systems eject NE out of the Rockies. Note: The tracks of these lows will determine how much rain we get in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late this week into next week, but right now it looks like we could see some rain at times from ~October 7-10, and again ~October 13-14.

Odds favor above normal precipitation over the next 2 weeks across much of the Northland (green colors on map)

There is a chance we see a more significant winter storm develop sometime the early to middle part of next week, with heavy snow accumulations possible over parts of the Rockies.

Tim

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