We’re finally starting to see the pattern break down after days of upper level ridging over the upper Midwest.
That aforementioned ridge has shifted off to the east today which is allowing an upper level low to approach from the south-southeast as it lifts north out of Missouri and Illinois today. Meanwhile a broad trough covered the western U.S., and its that trough which will deepen at times while remaining in place which will give the upper Midwest a more unsettled weather pattern for about the next week.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Thursday afternoon, October 7, 2021.
Upper level low heading north out of the Midwest will bring some rain showers to eastern parts of the Northland late tonight, but more so during the day Friday, with the Arrowhead and parts of northwest Wisconsin having a chance to pick up anywhere from one tenth to one quarter inch of rain thru Friday evening.
18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending 7 PM Friday, October 8, 2021.
Another night of dense fog is likely in parts of the Northland tonight, and a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas near Lake Superior including the North Shore, Twin Ports and portions of the South Shore. This advisory is in effect from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM Friday.
This advisory includes the cities of Silver Bay, Two Harbors, Duluth, Cloquet, Carlton, Moose Lake, Superior and Solon Springs.
Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
Hazardous driving conditions are expected due to low visibility.
A more active weather pattern will be setting up in the upper Midwest for about the next week or so.
Frequent rainfall events are likely in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin beginning on Friday and lasting through next week.
A system moving NE out of the Northern Plains will bring some rain to the Northland this weekend, especially from Saturday afternoon into Sunday the way it looks now.
Scattered thunderstorms are also possible as elevated instability increases ahead of the approaching low Saturday night, and we could see another round of scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon depending on the timing of the low and cold frontal passage. Note: A few of the storms especially Sunday could be on the strong side in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but any threat for stronger storms on Saturday should remain farther to the west, impacting parts of eastern South Dakota, southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota where we could even see an isolated tornado threat develop.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2″+ are forecast in the Northland over about the next two weeks per ensemble models, but most of this precip looks to occur over the next 7 days.
A much larger system remains possible next week, and this one looks to bring some significant snow to parts of the Rockies and western High Plains for the early-middle portion of next week.
This system could impact the upper Midwest and the Northland next Wednesday-Thursday, October 13-14, with some rain, gusty winds and possibly a few thunderstorms.
The first major snowstorm of fall 2021 is likely in parts of the Rockies and western High Plains region around October 12-14.